TWENTY-FOUR

(a.k.a. The Jack Bauer Power Hour)

Edgar's death a Mistake?

Maybe.... but Tony's? Definitely.

I know that this show is admired for its daring and willingness to dispatch major characters without remorse.... Jack Bauer may be the sweatsoaked fist of vengeance, but the fact remains, Agent SOULPATCH, a CTU fixture since Season One, was the heart of the show.

If he really is dead --and I still have my doubts, mostly because of the absent silent counter at the end of the episode with which the deceased Ryan Chapelle, George Mason, and Edgar Styles were previously honoured--

If he really is dead, expect switch Retribution from Agent GRAVITAS

There's a man going around taking names
And he decides who to free and who to blame
Everybody won't be treated all the same
There'll be a golden ladder reaching down
When the Man comes around

The hairs on your arm will stand up
At the terror in each sip and in each sup
Will you partake of that last offered cup?
Or disappear into the potter's ground
When the Man comes around

Hear the trumpets, hear the pipers
One hundred million angels singing
Multitudes are marching to the big kettledrum
Voices calling, voices crying
Some are born and some are dying
It's Alpha and Omega's kingdom come

And the whirlwind is in the thorn tree
The virgins are all trimming their wicks
The whirlwind is in the thorn tree
It's hard for thee to kick against the pricks

Till Armageddon no shalam, no shalom
Then the father hen will call his chickens home
The wise man will bow down before the thrown
And at His feet they'll cast their golden crowns
When the Man comes around

Whoever is unjust let him be unjust still
Whoever is righteous let him be righteous still
Whoever is filthy let him be filthy still
Listen to the words long written down
When the Man comes around

Hear the trumpets, hear the pipers
One hundred million angels singing
Multitudes are marching to the big kettledrum
Voices calling and voices crying
Some are born and some are dying
It's Alpha and Omega's kingdom come

And the whirlwind is in the thorn tree
The virgins are all trimming their wicks
The whirlwind is in the thorn tree
It's hard for thee to kick against the pricks

In measured hundred weight and penny pound
When the Man comes around.

Johnny Cash
The Man Comes Around

Memories of Italy - May 2004: Rufus, guardian of the Pensione Bellavista. The dreaded mastiff's slobbery kisses strikes fear into the hearts of the ruffians and ne'er-do-wells of Florence  

From an Ottawa Sun Column:
Oddly, when we were on our fuzzier peacekeeping missions no one cared when we died. There was rarely any publicity, and little sympathy. I don't quite understand that. In the end, I guess some people just don't get it. Some friends and family don't understand why I want to go, and why I don't make an effort to get out of serving in Afghanistan. I don't hear anyone asking a cop why he answers 911 calls, or why a firefighter runs into a burning building. In fact, I was just accepted for an occupational transfer to Search and Rescue Technician that brings a significant pay raise, but I've turned it down to go to the new Special Operations Regiment.
Why? How can I back away when all my friends are going? I believe in the mission, and in my heart I'm a soldier. This is what I do.

This gentleman displays the mindset of the warrior. John Keegan wrote in his introduction to A History of Warfare:Warriors are not as other men. I really believe that most Canadians cannot fathom this mentality, and perhaps the idea that idealistic dupes like this poor fellow actually want to go put what they have spent years training for to good use is almost repellent to some -- so disconnected have we become from our own past. They believe that we are a nation of peacekeepers, and that our benevolent blue helmets are basically a Canadian peacecorps trained in negotiation and multilateral relations --Canadian Forces members should not talk like gung-ho "american style" warriors. And yet, there are still warriors among us; honourable warriors who believe that the military profession is not one where the primary role of its practicants must be obfuscated or cloaked in the jargon of the pacifist.

No, Canada is not a militaristic society, but it is nevertheless a society in which the military has always played a role, a society where warriors still dwell --something that the myths, pieties and social engineering of the last thirty years can never truly erase. If you don't believe me, walk into any old militia armoury in any city in Canada --there are dozens across the land --and ask to speak to the resident historian or curator of the military museum.

Warriors have been a part of Canadian society since the first outposts were founded by Champlain in the seventeenth century. The history of some of Canada's present-day militia units can be traced back to the Niagara and Lower Canada campaigns in the War of 1812. Throughout the imperial years of the nineteenth century, both before and after Confederation, Canadian men --often more British in outlook than Canadian, went around the globe to fight in Queen Victoria's Wars and many gained reknown. This is that particular breed I refer to as a warrior --a breed of man quite unlike the citizen-soldier, who enlists in time of war, as millions did during the twentieth century.

These warriors are now the ones who now eagerly volunteer for dangerous operations like the one in Afghanistan, where, in the "three block war", humanitarian relief, peacekeeping and warfighting all go hand-in-hand. They fight for those who cannot fight for themselves in the most wretched corners of the world, risking life and limb to ply their trade and bring help to the oppressed. Most strongly believe in what they are doing, and some are even eager to go. George Orwell was speaking of these men when he wrote: "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf". The warriors are part of a warrior tribe, quite apart from the rest of us, that hews to those old-fashioned values of duty, honour, and loyalty, and their function is to protect the rest of us.

We should not prevent them from doing what any society expects of its warriors.

Jack Bauer vs. James Ellard - interesting parallels:

When he's on duty, Jack Bauer is known for his brooding intensity.
After he eats garlic, James Ellard is know for his brutally intense breath.

When dealing with terrorists, Jack often has no remorse.
When watching TV, James often cannot find his remote.

Jack shot a lady in the knee because he wanted to make a man talk.
James is a man, but he walks like a lady because his knees are shot.

Jack and his co-workers use intelligence from the Government to track down threats.
Because of his lack of intelligence, James is no threat to his Government co-workers.

Jack once faced a biological disaster and took out mexican baddies in the same day.
James once created a biological disaster in his apartment after some bad mexican take out.

Jack sometimes wears a kevlar vest and sunglasses.
James sometimes wears a sweater vest and reading glasses.

Jack barely eats and can function on no sleep for 24 hours at a time.
One time James ate 24 donuts in his sleep.

Jack doesn't play around --he has real gravitas.
James usually gets slapped around when he tries to play grab-ass.

Jack's heart once stopped during torture. He was revived and proceeded to kill everyone in the room.
James' heart once stopped halfway into a bag of pork rinds. He was revived and proceeded to kill a six-pack of Keiths.

Jack Bauer took 24 hours to save the U.S. President.
James Ellard took 24 minutes to shave a nursing home resident.

Michelle, Joe, Nesrine, and Ziad at the Courthouse in Toronto 

I'm not sure you HEARD ME!... There's some SNAKES on this Mothaf*ckin' PLANE!

Somebody in the Rotten Tomatoes Forum smells a hit. It stars Sam Jackson, and it's called-- I shit you not-- Snakes On A Plane:

Snakes on a Plane is going to be the Top-Grossssssssing film of 2006 because finally Jackson has found a worthy co-star since John Travolta that will finally up his game and make the back and forth interplay between the two entertaining. Kind of like when global superstar Jackie Chan hooked up with Chris Tucker and finally delivered a legitimate blockbuster hit that people in the States could enjoy. Same deal here. In 2006... snakes will be to Samuel L. Jackson what Chris Tucker was to Jackie Chan in the Rush Hour movies.

Do not for a second underestimate the underlying interest people have always had for snakes and the untapped potential they have to seriously kickstart the currently lukewarm movie industry. Everybody loves snakes, even the people who hate them, so this film is hopefully going to finally break down the walls and barriers and alleviate some of the long-standing stereotypes people have had with regards to this underrepresented species. Depending on how they are depicted in this already much-debated film, the potential Snakes has to significantly impact the visibility and overall acceptance of snakes in modern cinema is palpable. Snakes on a Plane is going to do for snakes what Brokeback Mountain has already done for gay people.... remember this.

Jackson may say this is just another throwaway movie for him. Lucky for him, 2006 may very well prove to be the Year of the Snake

Holy Blood, Holy Bunk

I'm quite gratified to hear that the "soon-to-be a major motion picture" The Da Vinci Code-- that formulaic, problematic, and highly over-rated novel, is getting its comeuppance. Anyone who has bothered to probe the roots of this pseudo-historical work of fiction will already be aware that it borrows heavily from Baigent and Leigh's Holy Blood, Holy Grail. Indeed, Dan Brown makes little secret of this, going so far as making the name of one of the characters in his novel an anagram of Baigent and Leigh's names.

It turns out the feckless Brown may have borrowed a bit too heavily from the 1982 conspirazoid opus authored by two so-called "religious scholars" Michael Baigent (BA Canterbury U.) and Dr Leigh (PhD Stony Brook New York State University -Stony Brook U? Is that an online university?) who are now suing Brown's ass for plagiarism. A legion of real religious scholars have already dismiss the oddball theories found in HBHB as a load of nonsense time and time again, but a high-profile court case will likely drag Baigent and Leigh's pungent ideas out into the light of day yet again, exposing the Priory of Sion Hoax and other ludicrous theories to a much wider audience than ever before.

Let the bloodletting begin, I say!

Olympic roundup:

Men's hockey team just got the beatdown from the Swiss. A nation hangs its head in shame.

A cautionary tale for showboats: American hotdogger blows it big time

Oops! Take down the gold wallpaper... do we have it it silver?

Somebody get a screenshot of this!
Canada ahead of US in medal count

Jihad roundup:

I've been thinking about one of self-described smut-peddlar Larry Flint's most famous quotes lately. He was, and largely remains, a reprehensible and amoral man -- but he was also a crusader for free speech, and he once said:

If the First Amendment will protect a scumbag like me, it will protect all of you.

So in that spirit, let us celebrate the right of scumbags to continue to draw scumbaggy drawings, say scumbaggish things, and basically scumbag it up in general. Because freedom is what makes us who we are. And we'll never give it up.

Topical Satire
More blasphemy from The Onion

Disrespectfully and blatantly ripped from the innards of NRO's The Corner:
The Multicultural Crackup (courtesy of John Derbyshire)
From Ron Liddle in the 2/4/06 London Spectator: "One of Britain's top Muslims, the ever-entertaining Sir Iqbal Sacranie, is in trouble for having expressed the wholly orthodox -- and even, by his religion's standards, moderate -- view that homosexuals are 'not acceptable' and 'immoral' and that 'same-sex relationships damage the very foundations of society.' For having come up with this stuff on the BBC's 'PM' programme, he has been investigated by the police for the thought-crime, or, as the police put it these days, hate-crime, of homophobia. "...If Sir Iqbal -- and adherents of the Muslim faith in general -- believe homosexuality to be repugnant, then that is their view, and it is not the business of the government, or the police... to divest them of it. But the Old Bill are scurrying around to Sir Iqbal's house with a view top rosecuting him for merely articulating one of the fundamental tenets of a religion whose strictures will soon be protected by law. [ i.e. the proposed UK law to criminalize the defamation of Islam] This is, quite literally, madness. The two laws -- one proposed and one already on the statute books -- are in
direct, unequivocal opposition. One day we will surely see the prosecution of a gay person for suggesting that Islam is ludicrous and, by dint of its opposition to homosexuality, illegal. And where will we be then?" [Derb] In short: If it a proper goal of the law to prosecute people who give outrageous offense to groups of their fellow-citizens; and if homosexuals, by their private practices, give outrageous offense to Muslims; and if Muslims, by their abhorrence of homosexuality, give outrageous offense to homosexuals; whom does the state prosecute?
Answers on a postcard, please, to Tony Blair, 10 Downing Street, London W.C.1.

Bizarre AND Blasphemous!

More offensive than the Hampster Dance!

Til next time...Stay Classy!

Fighting hate with humour

This is Brilliant
Something that will baffle and puzzle the extremists in Iran who hoped to provoke some kind of response by publishing vile holocaust cartoons. They truly do not understand Western society.

Here is a comment on LGF that explains --as well as I could-- why it is so brilliant:

The Jews who are behind this are saying to the Islamofascists, "We will take your antisemitism and throw it right back in your face. We will do it with more talent, more humor, more style and pizzazz, and yes, more artistry than you can imagine. And we'll be laughing at you the whole time." This is not self-hating behavior. There is plenty of that among Jews who identify with the (supposedly) oppressed Muslims, lefty students who join pro-Palestinian groups, etc. But that's not the case here. Jewish humor has completely penetrated American culture over the last 50 years or so and has become thoroughly mainstream, largely through television. Since childhood I've been exposed to comics like the Marx Brothers, Henny Youngman, Mel Brooks, and Jerry Seinfeld, just to name a few. They, and many others, have become part of the American pantheon. So even though I'm not Jewish, a Jewish style of humor is an inseparable part of me, and I couldn't imagine life without it(...) Humor is one area in which we are clearly superior to the Islamofascists, and we shouldn't hesitate to use it as a weapon.

NDP Clerics declare Fatwa

Vancouver NDPers launched a holy war against apostate Emerson... meanwhile, the silence of Montreal secular socialists over Senator "coz-I-didn't-feel-like-running!" Fortier is deafening. Different political cultures? Gallic pragmatism vs left coast idealism? All I know is that the big story of Harper's audacious Cabinet is being pumped full of steroids and fed intravenously by frantic, outraged political journalists (like one of my faves, A-to-the-C). The scribes are half repulsed by Harper's crass political opportunism, Fortier's annoying honesty about his distaste for trying his luck in an election, and Emerson's lack of scruples... and half pissed that Harper blindsided them with this blockbuster story without leaking it à la Paul Martin. They also must see the end is near, in the form of the Gretzky Tsunami... a story involving the ponitfex maximus of our national religion that will swamp the frontpages and headlines for days to come, drowning the Harper/Emerson/Fortier stories and washing them out to sea.... and that's a pity. Because what Harper did was clever AND wrong, I think, and deserves the opprobrium being visited on him. If the shrewd strategic thinkers in the PMO calculated the cost-benefit of this move months ago, and figured that the olympics or some olympic related story --please step forward, Mr. and Mrs. Betsky -- was bound to sprout new controversies across the front of our front pages, they may be about to be proved correct in their cynical calculus. Now watch for the martyrdom of Saint Wayne.

[IF]

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you
But make allowance for their doubting too,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream--and not make dreams your master,
If you can think--and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it all on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings--nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much,
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And--which is more--you'll be a Man, my son!


--Rudyard Kipling

Not to sound like some kind of doom-monger, but what the hell is going on?

Double D hints at a stalling global economy...

Meanwhile, Loonytoongate continues:

Daniel Pipes:

The key issue at stake in the battle over the twelve Danish cartoons of the Muslim prophet Muhammad is this: Will the West stand up for its customs and mores, including freedom of speech, or will Muslims impose their way of life on the West? Ultimately, there is no compromise: Westerners will either retain their civilization, including the right to insult and blaspheme, or not.

More hilarity, and a little perspective, from Iowahawk

Angry in the Great White North Gets it:

So I ask again, if you believe in free speech, if you believe that Church and State have distinct roles to play, and that they need to respect each other's authority, if you have spared any thought about the sort of world you want your kids to grow up in, and if you have ever wanted to poke an Islamic terrorist in the eye but figured you would never get the chance, then post a cartoon if you are a blogger.

State that the cartoon is offensive and in poor taste, if you find it so. Call it puerile and juvenile if you like. Misleading even. But if you have a blog, post a copy. Whatever your point of view, stand up and be counted against those who have not only have no interest in your point of view but would have your point of view silenced, violently if need be.

Another spot to see Cartoons

And because I am a believer in equal-opportunity offending, here are some offensive cartoons of a different stripe....sauce for the goose, I say... and yet for some reason, I don't recall any embassy burnings, boycotts or riots over these bad boys...

Though we continue to feed the crocodile, Captain Hook is finally getting what is coming to him. Now people are pissed that he wasn't investigated earlier.

Here is a scorecard of the spectrum of responses from the West.

NEVER FORGET

YOU HAVE A RIGHT TO THINK AND SAY AND BELIEVE WHAT YOU WANT

NO ONE CAN TAKE THAT AWAY FROM YOU

EVER


Cartoons here

One ought never to turn one's back on a threatened danger and try to run away from it. If you do that, you will double the danger. But if you meet it promptly and without flinching, you will reduce the danger by half.
Sir Winston Churchill

SITZKRIEG

A hundred years hence, some historians prone to periodization and the identification of historical parallels, as problematic as both these approaches may be, will no doubt look upon the first decade of the twenty-first century and debate the moment at which the West ended its policy of accomodation with Radical Islam and entered "the next stage".

Historians looking for the ominous signposts along the road to the conflict may well point to this development and the current showdown with Iran, to argue that we had already entered the phony war by 2006.

The early tremors often portend calamities to come, as the vagaries of history illustrate:

In an act of terror, an obscure young nationalist fires a pistol into the motorcar of an imperial heir, killing him and his pregnant wife. Six weeks later, millions of people are engulfed by conflict on an unimagined scale.

A public building is razed, and a dissafected former Corporal rises to absolute power amidst the turmoil of a worldwide depression, paving the way for the most horrific war ever visited upon civilization.

The seeds may well be sown.... if so, what will civilization harvest?

Free Flow

Presidential Candidate? Well...ya know... I could... see it

Why the Europeans are not waked up?
I did a Babelfish translation of a Mark Steyn interview with Guilio Meotti of Il Foglio. It was bizarre.
My favourite thing was the literal Italian translation of Alito as "Breath". Supreme Court Justice Sam Breath --a breath of fresh judicial air. I think it works!

Speaking of Steyn (as I often do... I can almost hear the sound of eyeballs rolling), I thought one of his comments on the Hughes story was hilarious:

Mr Hughes's current claim of "bisexuality" has the whiff of artful centrist positioning about it: bi- is the proportional representation of sexuality in a world where most of us - straight or gay - operate a first-past-the-post system.

After watching last night's horrifying Dateline NBC/Perverted-Justice.com Child Predator Sting, I was certain of one thing. If parents are letting their kids put up Web pages on
MySpace.com, they better make damn sure they are vigilant. We live in scary times.

Joe Knippenberg lays the smackdown on Shadia Drury and her ilk. The hysterics of leftist Canadian academics and their paranoia over the Calgary Cabal of Conservatives (I'm copyrighting that one) are also laughable to our neighbours to the South:

Much of the noise about the Calgary School's alleged Straussianism has been traced to one source, the University of Regina's Shadia Drury, who has made her career by writing increasingly shrill and implausible screeds purporting to expose the anti-democratic elitism (and ultimate nihilism) of Leo Strauss and his students. Her work has often impressed those who haven't actually read Strauss, especially if they're fond of conspiracy theories and have a visceral hatred for conservatives. Her commentary on the Canadian scene, warning of "radical populists hiding behind the cloak of rhetorical moderation," is hard to square with her picture of Strauss and his students as anti-democratic elitists. What are those Straussians-elitists who manipulate the credulous people by lying, or radical populists? Apparently, Drury can't decide.

Variety is the spice of life

Colby's latest column on the Pigeonhole Principle (From January 14th's National Post) raises the alarm on the reproductive revolution in the developing world and the resulting "engineered" sex ratios -- another by-product of the colision of traditional social values and modernity. Basically, many people prefer to have male children, and are taking the necessary measures to ensure they have them. As a result, for the first time since humankind first appeared, the species is consistently producing more male offspring than female. What are the implications? The mind reels...

Meanwhile, Nero plays his Lyre (not his fiddle, as widely reported) as Rome burns



In a not entirely unrelated vein, Zombie goes for a walk.

So now they have a catchy name: The Condinistas begin to gear up for a White House Run in 2008.

Shocking news: Nice Guy Eddie just passed away.

Let me say this out loud, 'cause I wanna get it straight in my head. You're saying that Mr. Blonde was gonna kill you, then when we got back, he was going kill us, take the satchel of diamonds, and scram. I'm right about that, right? That's correct? That's your story? Mr. Orange: I swear on my mother's eternal soul that's what happened. Nice Guy Eddie: The man you just killed was just released from prison. He got caught at a company warehouse full of hot items. He could've fuckin' walked. All he had to do was say my dad's name, but he didn't; he kept his fucking mouth shut. And did his fuckin' time, and he did it like a man. He did four years for us. So, Mr. Orange, you're tellin' me this very good friend of mine, who did four years for my father, who in four years never made a deal, no matter what they dangled in front of him, you're telling me that now, that now this man is free, and we're making good on our commitment to him, he's just gonna decide, out of the fucking blue, to rip us off?
Why don't you tell me what really happened? "

Someone was bound to write something on Jack Bauer's propensity for wounding people with bullets in order to extract information and the US policy on torture. Jack Bauer and the Ethics of Urgency is a thought-provoking take on this timely topic.

Speaking of which....

In the spirit of Norris, here is Bauer:

1. If you wake up in the morning, it's because Jack Bauer spared your life.

2.Upon hearing that he was played by Kiefer Sutherland, Jack Bauer killed Sutherland. Jack Bauer gets played by no man.

3.If Jack Bauer was in a room with Hitler, Stalin, and Nina Meyers, and he had a gun with 2 bullets, he'd shoot Nina twice.

4.Jack Bauer killed 93 people in just 4 days time. Wait, that is a real fact.

5.Jack Bauer got Hellen Keller to talk.

6.Jack Bauer was never addicted to heroin. Heroin was addicted to Jack Bauer.

7.Jack Bauer's favorite color is severe terror alert red. His second favorite color is violet, but just because it sounds like violent.

8. 1.6 billion Chinese are angry with Jack Bauer. Sounds like a fair fight.

9.If Jack says "I just want to talk to him/her" and that him/her is you... well amigo, you're fucked.

10.Jack Bauer once forgot where he put his keys. He then spent the next half-hour torturing himself until he gave up the location of the keys.

11.Jack Bauer doesn't miss. If he didn't hit you it's because he was shooting at another terrorist twelve miles away.

12.If you get 7 stars on your wanted level on Grand Theft Auto, Jack Bauer comes after you. You don't want to get 7 stars.

13.When you open a can of whoop-ass, Jack Bauer jumps out.

14.Jack Bauer does not sleep. The only rest he needs is what he gets when he's knocked out or temporarily killed.

15.If you are still conscious, it is because Jack Bauer doesn't want to carry you.

16.Jack Bauer has no problem following orders, unless you tell him to do something he doesn't want to.

17.Jack Bauer's gun is actually a water pistol, but the water shoots out in the form of bullets. Why? Because the gun is being held by Jack fucking Bauer.

18.Lets get one thing straight, the only reason you are conscious right now is because Jack Bauer does not feel like carrying you.

19.As a child, Jack Bauer's first words were "There's no time!"

20.While being 'put under' in the hospital, Jack Bauer can count backwards from 100 every time. This annoys the doctors.

21.Jack Bauer can watch all 4 seasons of 24 in 24 hours.

22.Jack Bauer literally died for his country, and lived to tell about it.

23.Jack Bauer's family threw him a surprise birthday party when he was a child. Once.

24.Killing Jack Bauer doesn't make him dead. It just makes him angry.

25.Everytime Jack Bauer yells "NOW!" at the end of a sentence, a terrorist dies.

26.If Jack's starring at someone and his eye twitches, assume that person has less than 15 minutes to live.

27.When life gave Jack Bauer lemons, he used them to kill terrorists. Jack Bauer fucking hates lemonade.

28.Guns dont kill people, Jack Bauer kills people.

29.David Spade always says 'yes' to Jack Bauer when he wants to redeem his credit card miles.

30.Don't ask what Jack Bauer would do for a Klondike bar...

BONUS: Say it ain't so! Jack's Pops is a pinko!!!

Expect more on this....

Coyne highlights new conventional wisdom out there in blogland --Central thesis: The urban-rural split is a fallacy, a media myth Tories outpolled the Liberals in Quebec City, Ottawa, Regina, Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton, and St. John's. Outside the three metropolises, the Tories won 33 seats to the Liberals 7.

There is actually an idea floating now of an MTV/rest-of-Canada divide, caused largely by overwhelming immigrant support of the Liberals. (picking up on the stat that three quarters of immigrants settle in MTV).

Coyne says: "He may or may not be right to attribute the difference to the immigrant vote. I'd say that was a subset of a larger phenomenon of cosmopolitanism. Big-city diversity has many faces: ethnicity, language, class, sexual orientation, etc. Tories have got to show they get this. (In particular, the sooner they put the gay marriage issue behind them the better.)"

How will this affect Conservative policies toward regionalizing immigration? I'm willing to bet that "spreading 'em around" is going to become a bigger priority.

Something to think about...

Will the Board fall on their swords?

I predicted:

LIBS 96 / CONS 120 / NDP 30 / BLOC 62

Actual:

LIBS 103 / CONS 124 / NDP 29 / BLOC 51 / IND 1

(difference +7 / -4 / -1/ -11)

Two things I did not anticipate:

The refusal of much of Ontario to swing over to Harper (meant less Tory seats in Ontario, same trend seen in BC)
The unexpected Conservative breakthrough in Quebec (meant a few more Tories in Quebec, alot less Bloc)

My verdict: A good night for the Federation. The West got in. We now have two
national parties, and a discredited Bloc that has lost all momentum now that the Gomery thing has been put to bed.


1 Samuel 31, King James Bible
Now the Philistines fought against Israel: and the men of Israel fled from before the Philistines, and fell down slain in mount Gilboa.

And the Philistines followed hard upon Saul and upon his sons; and the Philistines slew Jonathan, and Abinadab, and Melchishua, Saul's sons.

And the battle went sore against Saul,and the archers hit him; and he was sore wounded of the archers.

Then said Saul unto his armourbearer, Draw thy sword, and thrust me through therewith; lest these uncircumcised come and thrust me through, and abuse me. But his armourbearer would not; for he was sore afraid. Therefore Saul took a sword, and fell upon it.

And when his armourbearer saw that Saul was dead, he fell likewise upon his sword, and died with him.

So Saul died, and his three sons, and his armourbearer, and all his men, that same day together.

From today's Globe


Most fingers were pointed at the so-called board, the close group of strategists around Mr. Martin, such as David Herle, Scott Reid, Tim Murphy, Terrie O'Leary and Michele Cadario.

One long-time Liberal was harshly critical of this group. "They are mean people," said the Liberal organizer. "They have destroyed the reputation and integrity of a brilliant world businessman . . . because of their own egos." He said that the board members are "finished."

"No leadership contender, if there is a leadership, will be seen in the same room as them," he said.


Postscripts:

I have been convinced for some time now that there are two new solitudes in Canada. THIS confirms it.

Toronto is entitled to its entitlements!

Tonight, Canada gave itself a high-colonic

I was pretty close with my predictions. Not sure exactly how close, since I left my seat projection at work. In spite of the best efforts of some in the MSM to try to paint tonight as a "disappointment" for the Conservatives, the fact remains that Stephen Harper will be moving from Stornoway to 24 Sussex. He broke through in Quebec--beyond anyone's expectations, and made some marginal improvements in Ontario. That's what he needed to do, and he did it.

Particularly skewed coverage was provided, as usual, by the Mothercorp: at one point the following factoid crawled across the bottom of the screen--Liberals and NDP have more seats than the Conservatives... so-f*cking-what? The Conservatives won a plurality of seats -- any way you slice it, they get to govern, notwithstanding any "spin" that attempts to portray a half-victory, or a "technical" win. Today is a good day for Federalism, for our political process, and --with voter turnouts up from 2004--for our democracy.

Like Harper said in his speech "The West is in"... now how long can they stay in?

"A hierarchichal ape that did not like being bossed around"

That's how an anthropologist on CBC News Sunday describes the common ancestor of humans and apes in a clever little item that shows the paralels between our political process and the social behaviour of chimps. Intercutting clips of chimpanzees growling, babbling and attacking each other in the wild with scenes of the party leaders gladhanding and posturing, it's a wonderfully subversive piece. Why no shots of chimps flinging poo, though?

Well, tomorrow, all the chimps will climb out of their trees to get a look at the situation on the ground.

The media sez:

Liberal midshipmen are putting on their dress uniforms to go stand on the burning deck Martin is lashing himself to the mast.

Tequila Sheila is carving Junior's tombstone Conservative Majority you say?

The irrepressible Greg Weston starts counting Cabinet chickens before they hatch

The Venerable Doug Fisher passes sentence

Warren bathes in schadenfreude Revenge of the Soccer Moms? Yup, I think so!

The Coshster weighs in with his eleventh-hour prediction. A fellow cynic; Colby's seat prediction is pretty close to mine.

And then there"s Maude! Barlow, Paul Martin's new second-most bestest friend (after Basil "Fawlty" Hargrove), continues to show Jack Layton why he should give her the cold shoulder (or the finger) after this election.

DAIFALLAH! Is it just me, or does the young fellow's name sound like some kind of warcry? Adam gives us the skinny on Quebec.

Paul Wells, the most consistently anti-Martin commentator I have ever seen, does what he does best

Coyne continues his systematic dismantling of Liberal puffery and misdirection

Finally, The Master seems to see the light at the end of the tunnel

Having your cake and eating it too

The Grits, who think of themselves as the party of immigrants, have made certain decisions concerning party orthodoxy -many by fiat from the PMO- that were bound to have consequences come election time.

Today's Toronto Star has an article that may indicate some of those problematic issues are now bubbling to the surface:

"People are angry at the Liberals," says Sima Zerehi, who edits the English-language section of Shahrvand, a twice-weekly paper for the Iranian community.

There are many reasons why.

Among the national issues, only same-sex marriage seems to be a consistent problem for the Liberals.

People "are very unhappy with the Liberals about that," says Latafat Ali Siddiqui, editor in chief of Canadian Asian News, a monthly that serves people from Pakistan and India.

"We have extensive coverage of same-sex marriage," says Tak Lam, news editor of the Chinese daily Ming Pao. "Asians don't feel so comfortable with that."

The irony here, of course, is that this issue, like abortion and other matters of conscience, cuts across party lines. Some Liberals oppose Same-sex marriage. Some Conservatives are in favour. Nevertheless, the Liberals are now considered pro same-sex marriage, notwithstanding Martin's rhetorical gymnastics concerning the protection of the Charter of Rights (it is said that Martin, who is nearly seventy, is actually rather uncomfortable with the issue, like many of his generation).

Did it not occur to anyone in the Liberal Party that the whole Charter thing would not fly with immigrant communities? Contrary to what the politburo might think, immigrants understand the Charter -and they value it. They certainly do not wish to see it trivialized by invoking it to protect dubious "rights" that were never really in question.

Multiculturalism is founded on respect for other cultures. The Grits may soon find out that some of their client groups' cultures include a traditional (even "religious) streak and a distate for the trivialization of one of the documents they hold most dear as Canadians.

Clash of the Titans?

Juggernaut

vs.

Juggernaut

Stephen Harper Wants To Eat Your Face

Stephen Harper wants to cut all your social services and use the savings to recruit radical right-wing american hillbilly commandos from red states to come up here and set up shooting galleries on the streets of downtown Toronto --preferrably the Annex, where all them pinkos live-- and then Harper will fund American-style private healthcare clinincs where victims of these gun toting lunatics will have to sell their blood and kidneys and lengths of intestine to pay for the suturing of their bullet wounds, which they'll have to do themselves because Stephen Harper hates immigrants and won't allow foreign-trained doctors into the country unless it is to drive trucks full of toxic waste up to northern ontario, where the trucks will dump biohazardous materials from his private, republican-style healthcare clinics into abandoned mines, causing flipper-babies and other such birth defects in expectant repressed lesbian mothers who live on a single income with no spousal support because Stephen Harper wants to use the notwithstanding clause to outlaw gay marriage and force the dissolution of all gay marriages that have take place, and force those gay divorcées to campaign against abortion by creating chain gangs of gay, formerly married Canadians to rummage through abortion pails behind Morgenthaler clinics so that the radical right wing fundamentalist christian zealots who want to get their filthy paws on your oviaries will have bloody props to brandish when they have their violent demonstrations on parliament hill as a prelude to the introduction of a conservative law that outlaws a woman's right to choose and donates all those babies from the unwanted pregnancies to experimental genetic supersoldier farms run by christian fundamentalist preachers to be set up in Kanata, Ontario, designed to breed unthinking killing machines that will be used by an all-powerful department of national defence to go to other countries and impose the nefarious Bush agenda of world domination and fascist imperialism with jackboots and bazookas.

Choose your Canada, dumbass.

Re-alignment

Will the centre hold? Jack Layton's message is shifting. While it isn't exactly what I suggested a while ago --that the NDP could work with a Conservative Government on common issues like electoral reform and accountability-- for the Tories, it's probably the next best thing. If Paul Martin does not "deserve" to be re-elected because of the pathetic campaign he has run, a simple process of elimination tells us that Layton is acknowledging the likelihood of a Conservative government.

Pragmatically, smiling Jack is mostly limiting his criticism of the Tories to ideology: "Conservatives are wrong on the issues that matter to Canadians". Knowing that Harper will probably form the next Government, if Layton continues to pound on the Martin regime, he may prevent NDP defections to the Grits on election night. But that isn't whole story. Calls for "disappointed" Liberals to join forces with the NDP this election are calculated to reverse the 2004 election trend. Layton is actually hoping left-leaning Liberals will abandon the Martin regime and flock to the NDP.

Such a development could signify the biggest re-alignment in Canadian politics in nearly a decade-and-a-half: A polarization of the political landscape, as voters abandon the "centrist" Liberal party, and vote ideologically, strengthening the mainstream right or left wing parties (or the Bloc or Greens, for that matter). This trend could decimate the Liberals outside of their traditional urban strongholds, paving the way for the Bloc to become the Official Opposition.

But of course, this is all speculation... and alot can change in a week!

Don't call the coroner yet

So, we have been led to believe that the Grit corpse is almost done twitching. The last bullet wound appears to have been self-inflicted, strangely enough. Should we blame lousy marksmanship?

And yet, while we may be tempted to draw a sheet over the body, and wheel it out on a gurney, the paramedics are still working away feverishly. Chances are, they will keep working on it long after it begins to stink. After all, it stank while it was still alive and kicking.

Prepare for impact in 3...2...

To protect his lead, all Harper needed to do in tonight's debate was to appear calm, statesmanlike, not freak out, keep hammering home his platform.

He achieved that.

Layton needed to slam both the Conservatives and the Liberals to position himself as the "third option".

That's exactly what he did.

Duceppe just needed to show up, and have fun poking at the other three.

No problem there.

To halt Tory momentum, Martin needed to hit one out of the park, and convince voters that Harper hates Canada, and was going to destroy Confederation and voluntarily surrender Canada to nefarious Republican interests.

Uh... didn't quite pull it off, did he?

So, have I ever told you that I did Basic Officer Training with one of the only Canadian soldiers to have engaged in combat between the Korean War and Afghanistan?...

Let me explain:

I only came to this realization last week, while reading Carol Off's new book, The Ghosts of Medak pocket, which my brother had gotten for me as a Christmas Present.

In the summer of 1997, I was in Gagetown, New Brunswick, suffering through RESO (Reserve Entry Scheme Officer), Phase 2 training. Our platoon was evenly divided between two groups. One the one hand, you had the mostly older (twentysomething) Reservists, many of whom had been Corporals (like me) or Sergeants in the Militia, and some of whom had done UN tours overseas in the early nineties in Bosnia and Croatia. On the other hand, you had the Regular Force "Ringnockers", as we called them: People from the Royal Military College. As a rule, these Officer Cadets tended to be younger, and extremely green, since most had gone directly from highschool to RMC. Most of them were hopeless at the beginning of the course, and many were hopeless right up to the end. There were, however, exceptions to this rule.

One of the exceptions was Scott Leblanc, a short, burly fellow in his mid-twenties with a friendly face, quiet manner, and bright blue eyes. When I first met him, aside from the fact that he was an older Officer Cadet at RMC, there was nothing remarkable about him. As time went on, some of the guys who had gone overseas in the early nineties would talk about Croatia and what happened to 2PPCLI (The Second Battalion of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry) in the Medak Pocket. Every once in a while, someone would ask Scott about his decoration for his actions during a firefight which had never been made public, but the laconic former Artillery Reservist from the Maritimes who was not much of a braggart never seemed to have much to say about it. Even the instructors seemed aware of the "incident", which at this time, was fairly common knowledge among infantrymen. The Canadian Forces is not a huge organization, after all, and word seems to get around. We never really got the full story from Scott, only that in 1993, then-Private Leblanc's platoon had fought off an attack by Croatian forces during the course of a very dangerous operation in 1993. All that Leblanc would admit to is that he had burned off a couple of hundred rounds from his C-9 Light Machine Gun, and that the Croats had been repulsed.

I only got the full story when I read Off's account of that action, which included references to Leblanc and his section's heroics. It was easy to understand why this "incident" had never been made public. This fight occurred in '93, at almost the same time that the Somalia scandal broke, and Canadians had been shaken by the acts of the soon-to-be-disbanded Airborne Regiment. It simply wouldn't do to have another story in the media where Canadian troops, ostensibly involved in UN "Peacekeeping Operations", had been engaged in combat, and had probably killed Croat troops (The Croat government reported 27 KIA during combat in the Pocket).

Well, as we now know, the UN operations that took place in the Balkans in the early nineties were certainly not what would have been considered peacekeeping in the traditional sense of the word. It was an ugly, complicated conflict, and Canadian troops had been called upon to interpose themselves between the Serb and Croat forces in an attempt to halt the ethnic cleansing that we now know took place in that area. In spite of being hamstrung by complicated rules of engagement, the Canadians had acquitted themselves admirably, although many were scarred by what they saw there, and frustrated that because of the UN-imposed rules, they had not managed to prevent the murder of dozens of innocents. At the time, however, that isn't the way that the leadership of the Canadian Forces saw it, and so, as Off relates in her book, the brass decided to cover up the Medak Pocket incident. It wasn't until much later that the truth began leaking out. And only recently have the troops involved in that operation been fully recognized for what they did. Some of the members of the PPCLI Battle Group who were there have never recovered, mentally or physically.

In Summer of 1997, Scott, who four years earlier had, in the midst of heavy fire, bravely risen from his trench to fire his machine-gun into a Croat force attempting to flank his platoons position, and probably saved some of his comrades in doing so, ended up coming in second place overall on the course. Top candidate in my company was another RMC type, Ryan Latinovitch, who had transferred to the Infantry late in his time at RMC, and was therefore also older than most of the Regular Force Officer Cadets. Last I heard, Ryan was a Captain in command of 3PPCLI's Recce (Reconnaissance) Platoon,and done a tour in Afghanistan. I admire both of these guys.

The days of Suez or Cyprus-style "peacekeeping" are long past. Today, the Canadian Forces operate under very different and far more dangerous situations, and have been called upon to use lethal force more than once to protect themselves and achieve their objectives. The national myth of Canadian peacekeepers as benign observers should be put to rest. Canadian soldiers are trained to fight, and they do it very well, when they have to. Canada should be proud that men and women of the calibre of Leblanc and Latinovitch serve this country, put themselves in harm's way, and sacrifice so much for the rest of us.

I waited a long time to see Fahrenheit 9/11, now here is my three-and-a-half word review:

Mendacious, misleading grief-porn

The Electoral Reform Parliament?

On New Year's Eve, I was deep into a discussion on the election campaign with some of my fiance's family, speculating on all sorts of scenarios the morning after the polls close, when someone raised a fairly straightforward question:

In the event of a Conservative minority, what issue could the NDP and the Conservatives possibly find common ground on?

My answer: Fixing our democracy and changing the way we vote

As
this article reveals, both the Knee-dippers and the Tories lament the fact that our "First-past-the-post" system tends to exagerate and distort voting patterns, leading to the impression that "Alberta is Conservative" and "Ontario is Liberal", when in fact no region or province in the country votes as a homogenous bloc, and vote percentages are nearly always much narrower than final seat tallies would indicate. That's how some parties have won solid electoral majorities in the past in spite of not necessarily garnering a large plurality of the popular vote --Jean Chretien's back-to-back-to-back majorities comes to mind.

Both parties favour electoral reform in some form or another, mostly in order to fix a system that seems designed to produce Liberal Government after Liberal Government, often at the expense of the NDP and smaller parties. A proportional representation system, or some combination of A and B, might be a solution to this problem. One which Conservatives and NDPers could work on together in spite of the ideological chasm that divides them. I can think of a few more. Senate reform, for example.

The "strategic voting" phenom of 2004 (soft NDP supporters who switched to the Liberals in the polling booth because a Conservative victory "scares" them) must be a spectre that loom large in the mind of Jack Layton. Although pundits indicate that Layton favours holding the balance of power in a Liberal Minority, his "Results for Canadians" campaign theme could get flushed down the crapper in 2006, if the Liberals steal his votes and a puny, impotent NDP caucus results.

It is clear that the NDP has choices to make. Generally, sending more NDPers to the house means sending less Liberals, because that is where the electorate on the centre-left intersects. The story is a bit different in BC, where you have three-way horse races, and in Quebec, where the NDP and Conservatives barely register, but in Ontario, the 900lb gorilla in the Canadian electorate, NDP fortunes will live or die depending on how many 905ers get spooked back to the Grits.

Knowing this in his heart, can Layton make common cause with the Tories and convince people to not fear a non-Liberal Government in the second half of the campaign in order to steal some Liberal seats? I'm not sure. I imagine he recoils in disgust at having to do so. But both the NDP and the Tories have stated their desire to see the Liberals punished --what better way to do so than being bounced from Government? --and it is useful to look at areas of possible collaboration in a house with a decimated grit caucus, a strong NDP, and a fragile Conservative minority looking to get things done.

Horserace

The winds of change are beginning to blow as the campaign rolls into 2006. The two main parties are now in a statistical dead heat in the polls. There is an undeniable sense of a momentum shift in the air, and the pungent stench of fear is beginning to emanate from the Liberals.

Throughout the election campaign I have been relying on three fantastic online sources to feed my hunger for info, and each of them have been buzzing over the past few days, as a new picture of the 2006 election begins to coalesce.

Bourque, who has been watching the Income Trust Scandal closely, and following its impact in the polls, reports seismic shifts in the upper echelons of the Liberal Party, as pretenders to Martin's throne await the results of the plebiscite that will determine PM's future. A failure to gain a majority may mean Martin's days as Liberal Party leader are numbered. A loss of power will seal his fate.

Kinsella, no friend of the Martin regime, reports with glee on the new Conservative spot--one he believes will effectively hamstring the Liberal's plan to "go negative"-- and proclaims that the bottom has fallen out of their campaign. He has been predicting with a certainty bordering on cockiness that this election will be a repudiation of Paul Martin's Ministry.

Not so fast... a cornered dog still has teeth, and the Liberals have been ramping up their efforts to uncover skeletons in Conservative closets --a tactic that has served them well in previous elections. Macleans Back-page guy Wells, who aired some ugly stuff about Peter Goldring's campaign manager this week, remarks upon the way the Conservatives moved quickly and decisively to neutralize the story before it got legs by summarily sacking Gord Stamp. One cannot fail to note the contrast between this deft stickhandling and the continuing inability of Martin to take any decisive action on, well, anything.

Happy New Year, people --the first month of ought-six promises to be very interesting.

LINK-O-RAMA

More shenanigans!

God bless the troops and their families

Dangerous mix of religion and politics?

Who knew that Brian Trottier was Aboriginal?... and who knew that such racist pigs still existed?

20/12/2005
All right, let's go to toronto now and ndp leader jack layton is at a subway
station in the city:

be warned: Voting for paul martin's liberals because of issues like the war in
Iraq or Kyoto or equal marriage is risky because you never know which paul
martin you are going to get. After all, when Paul martin does not know what he
believes, how can you? The fact is that mr. Martin is wrapping himself in the
courage of his predecessor when he dodged and waffled on every question. If you
think jean chretien made the right call on Iraq vote ndp because we supported
him. Not Paul martin who undermined him as prime minister and liberal leader.


Voting liberal in toronto does not stop a conservative, it elects a liberal and rewards a party that's taken toronto's votes and then taken it for granted. Taken Toronto's tax dollars and spent them on its friends... Voting for paul martin's liberals because of issues like the war in Iraq or Kyoto or equal marriage is risky because you never know which paul martin you are going to get. After all, when Paul martin does not know what he believes, how can you? The fact is that mr. Martin is wrapping himself in the courage of his predecessor when he dodged and waffled on every question. If you think jean chretien made the right call on Iraq vote ndp because we supported him. Not Paul martin who undermined him as prime minister and liberal leader.

If Layton states, for the record, that he could work with a Harper Government a
few more times, my prediction for last election, may turn out to be eerily
prescient of this election:


> -----Original Message-----
> From: Ellard.James
> Sent: June 28, 2004 12:28 PM
> To:
> Subject: RE: Guess results
>
> My prediction:
>
> Martin will try to form a minority Liberal Government (will lean left for NDP)
>
> Will fall by October
>
> Odds 50-50 that Martin survives leadership review.
>
> Conservatives 114
> Liberals 110
> Bloc Québécois 57
> NDP 26
> Independent 1
>
> You heard it here first!

Oh, the year was 1778, HOW I WISH I WAS IN SHERBROOKE NOW!
A letter of marque come from the king,
To the scummiest vessel I'd ever seen,
CHORUS:
God damn them all!
I was told we'd cruise the seas for American gold
We'd fire no guns-shed no tears
Now I'm a broken man on a Halifax pier
The last of Barrett's Privateers.
Oh, Elcid Barrett cried the town, HOW I WISH I WAS . . .
For twenty brave men all fishermen who
would make for him the Antelope's crew
(chorus)
The Antelope sloop was a sickening sight,
She'd a list to the port and and her sails in rags
And the cook in scuppers with the staggers and the jags
(chorus)
On the King's birthday we put to sea,
We were 91 days to Montego Bay
Pumping like madmen all the way
(chorus)
On the 96th day we sailed again,
When a bloody great Yankee hove in sight
With our cracked four pounders we made to fight
(chorus)
The Yankee lay low down with gold,
She was broad and fat and loose in the stays
But to catch her took the Antelope two whole days
(chorus)
Then at length we stood two cables away,
Our cracked four pounders made an awful din
But with one fat ball the Yank stove us in
(chorus)
The Antelope shook and pitched on her side,
Barrett was smashed like a bowl of eggs
And the Maintruck carried off both me legs
(chorus)
So here I lay in my 23rd year,
It's been 6 years since we sailed away
And I just made Halifax yesterday


Ah, General Tso, you were a formidable opponent, but your chicken is delectable! C. Montgomery Burns

Lazy Sunday
Funniest bit I've seen on SNL for ages


[Samberg] Lazy Sunday, wake up in the late afternoon, call Parnell just to see
how he's doin'.
[Parnell] Hello?
[Samberg] What up, Parns?
[Parnell] Yo Samberg, what's rockin'?
[Samberg] You thinkin' what I'm thinkin'?
[both] NARNIA!
[Samberg] Then it's happenin'.
[Parnell] But first my hunger pangs, I stick it like duct tape.
[Samberg] Let's hit up Magnolia and mack on some cupcakes.
[Parnell] No doubt the bakery's got all the bomb frostings.
[Samberg] I love those cupcakes like McAdams loves Gosling...

[Parnell] Two!
[Samberg] No, six!
[Parnell] No, twelve!
[both] BAKER'S DOZEN!
[Samberg] I told you that I'm crazy for these cupcakes, cousin!
[Parnell] Yo, where's the movie playin'?
[Samberg] Upper West Side, dude.
[Parnell] Well let's hit up Yahoo Maps to find the dopest route.
[Samberg] I prefer MapQuest...
[Parnell] That's a good one, too...
[Samberg] Google Maps is the best...
[Parnell] True dat!
[both] DOUBLE TRUE!
[Samberg] 68th and Broadway,
[Parnell] Step on it, suckah!
[Samberg] Whatchoo wanna do, Chris?
[Parnell] SNACK ATTACK, MOTHER-F*****!
[both] The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Yes, The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
We love The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Pass the The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!

[Samberg] Yo, stop at the deli, the theater's overpriced.
[Parnell] You got the backpack?
[Samberg] Gonna pack it up nice!
[Parnell] Don't want security to get suspicious.
[Samberg] Mr. Pibb and Red Vines equals Crazy Delicious!
[Parnell] I reach in my pocket, pull out some dough,
[Samberg] Girl acted like she never seen a ten befo'.
[both] It's all about the Hamiltons, baby!
[Samberg] Throw the snacks in the bag,
[Parnell] And I'm Ghost like Swayze...

[Parnell] Roll up to the theater,
[Samberg] Ticket-buyin', well, we're handlin',
[Parnell] You can call us Aaron Burr
[Samberg] From the way we're droppin' Hamiltons.
[Parnell] We're parked in our seats, movie trivia's the illest.
[Samberg] What Friends alum starred in films with Bruce Willis?
[Parnell] We answer so fast that we're scary.
[Samberg] Everyone stand in awe when we scream
[both] MATTHEW PERRY!
[Samberg] Now, quiet in the theater or it's gonna get tragic!
[Parnell] We're 'bout to get taken to a dreamworld of magic!
[both] It's The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Yes, The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
We love The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Pass the The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!

e-mail I got today from a reliable source:

> This guy is a paid consultant who got all but one seat called correctly in the
last election.
> Memorandum
> 20 December 2005
>
>
>
> Subject: Election 2006 Midway Update
>
> As the political leaders take a break for Christmas, I thought that it would
be useful to consider the state of the campaign and provide some insight into
possible outcomes.
>
> To begin, we should look briefly at the current standing in the House of
Commons:
>
> Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Other Total
> Newfoundland/Labrador 5 2 0 0 0 7
> Nova Scotia 6 3 2 0 0 11
> New Brunswick 7 2 1 0 0 10
> PEI 4 0 0 0 0 4
> Quebec 21 0 0 54 0 75
> Ontario 74 23 7 0 2 106
> Manitoba 3 7 3 0 1 14
> Saskatchewan 1 13 0 0 0 14
> Alberta 1 26 0 0 1 28
> British Columbia 8 22 0 0 1 36
> Northern Territories 3 0 0 0 0 3
> Total 133 98 18 54 5 308
>
> Canadian elections are rarely homogenous single issue campaigns. In reality,
Canada will have five distinct regional campaigns (plus the North), each with
its own inter-party dynamic and regional issues. Thus, Election 2006 will be
fought in six distinct battlegrounds: the Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, the West,
British Columbia and the North.
>
>
>
>
> Since the campaign began on November 29th, the Liberals have never been behind
in a National opinion poll. Only Ipsos-Reid has shown the Liberals and
Conservatives tied at 31% each > -> and that was on day one of the campaign.
Subsequent Ipsos-Reid polls (3) all have the Liberals ahead by several points.
Other pollsters have given the lead to the Liberals by as much as 10%. The true
dynamic of the National campaign will not become evident until the final push
post-Christmas when both the party advertising and Leaders> '> rhetoric are
expected to go negative.
>
> Two firms (SES and Strategic Counsel) are doing daily updates to Tracking
polls > -> these are smaller sample sizes than National surveys that are
aggregated over several days to provide a good read of the trend-lines for
voting intentions. Interestingly, the two Tracking polls seem to contradict each
other. SES has consistently given the Liberals a significant lead > -> as wide
as 15% at the end of week one, but narrowed to only 8% in the most recent
samples. The Strategic Counsel, on the other hand, has shown a much tighter
race, with the two parties in a virtually dead heat for the first several weeks.
In its most recent samples, the Liberals have been ahead by roughly 5%. You
should note that the SES numbers are closer to the results from other larger
National polls than are those of the Strategic Counsel. The Tracking polls may
provide the most interesting data as the election unfolds and should be watched
as the campaign shifts to the pro-active phase after Christmas.
>
> So what does the current Regional picture look like? Regional political
strength at dissolution of the House of Commons is shown below, i.e. total seats
in Parliament.
>
> Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Independent
> BC 36 8 22 5 0 1
> West 56 4 46 3 0 2
> Ontario 106 74 23 7 0 2
> Quebec 75 21 0 0 54 0
> Atlantic 32 22 7 3 0 0
> North 3 3 0 0 0 0
> Total 308 133 98 18 54 5
>
> British Columbia: The BC campaign appears to be the tightest race in the
country. In most polls since the Election was called, Liberal, Conservative and
NDP numbers have been virtually tied > -> within the margin of polling error.
The most recent SES Tracking poll, however, shows the Liberals with a slim lead,
and the NDP losing s> upport to the Conservatives. Liberal and NDP strength lies
in the Lower Mainland; and the Conservatives remain strong in the rest of the
province. I would expect that as the race turns negative, the vote will polarize
between the Liberals and the Conservatives and the NDP vote will be reduced. In
a close National race, BC could be the King-maker in 2006.
>
> The West: Alberta and Saskatchewan remain Conservative strong-holds. The only
non-Conservative seats in the two provinces are Anne McLellan in Edmonton and
Ralph Goodale in Regina. (Independent David Kilgour> '> s seat in Edmonton is
expected to return to the Conservative fold.)
>
>
> Both have gone against the stream to win in the past and they could survive
again. Anne McLellan appears to be vulnerable this time. Manitoba, with some
interesting three way local races, could bring a few surprises for all parties.
Manitoba is the only Western province where parties other than the Conservatives
have a reasonable chance of winning or keeping seats.
>
> Ontario: The Liberals started strong and appear to be holding a substantial
lead over the Conservatives. It is expected that Stephen Harper will target key
ridings in South West and Rural Ontario, and selected ridings elsewhere. Recent
polls (SES particularly) have noted an increase in Conservative support in these
areas. There is also some encouragement for them in Toronto itself. So far,
National polls give the edge to the Liberals in Ontario. In the final three
weeks of the campaign, the NDP could be squeezed as in BC if the electorate
becomes polarized around the stark choice between the Conservatives and the
Liberals. In Ontario, so far, the Liberals strongest card appears to be Stephen
Harper. As long as Harper does not > "> break through> "> in Ontario, the last
Liberal bastion will hold.
>
> Quebec: In Quebec, the race is between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals,
with the BQ anticipating additional seats in Montreal> '> s > "> red zone> "> .
Liberal Ministers Pierre Pettigrew, Liza Frulla, Jacques Saada and Jean Lapierre
are all in tight races to retain their seats. Two other races to watch are
Pontiac (where Conservative candidate, Lawrence Cannon, is running a strong race
against Liberal incumbent, David Smith) and Vaudreuil-Solanges (where former
Astronaut Marc Garneau is trying to win the seat back for the Liberals from BQ
incumbent Meilli Faille). The BQ currently hold 54 of the 75 seats in Quebec,
and have a substantial lead (> 20%) in all polls. It is expected that the BQ
will add seats to their total, but how many will depend on the dynamic of the
final three weeks. While recent Tracking polls show slight movement to the
Liberals, the advantage remains with the Bloc.
>
> Atlantic: Given current polls in this region, it is doubtful that there will
be much change from the last Election. Liberal support appears to be growing at
the expense of the Conservatives. However, the results in the Atlantic region
often run contrary to National trends. In 1997, when the Liberals won a thin
Majority government, the Atlantic region voted massively for the Conservative
party, displacing numerous incumbents, including high profile Liberal Ministers
David Dingwall and Doug Young.
>
> The North: The North cannot be counted as a separate region, per se, given
that there are only three seats. That said, the status quo is likely to prevail
with the Liberals retaining all three seats.
>
> Conclusions: The Bloc Quebecois are expected to dominate in Quebec,
effectively removing up to 60 of the 308 seats from the calculations of the
other two National parties > -> all but guaranteeing that the next Parliament
will be another Minority government. As of today, this is still a Liberal
Minority Parliament. With the exception of the Strategic Counsel Tracking poll,
the consensus among pollsters (Ipsos-Reid, SES, Leger, Ekos, Decima) is that the
Liberals have a growing lead of 6 - 8% and currently sit at 36 - 38%. Most
troubling for the Conservatives is that they have been unable to post consistent
numbers above 30% nationally > -> despite the multitude of issues confronting
the Liberal Party (Gomery, HRDC, Gun Registry, and more). Pollara has just
released a poll showing the Conservatives at 34% nationally. The Liberals are at
37% in the same poll.
>
>
>
>
> It appears that the first series of Debates changed the voting intentions of
very few Canadians. There will be a second series of Debates on January 9 -10,
and it is expected that the attacks will become more personal and negative. The
serious phase of the campaign begins on January 3rd.
>
> I will offer no firm predictions yet. However, you may want to consider that
in 1997, when the Liberals received 39% of the popular vote, they were rewarded
with 155 of the 301 seats > -> a Majority. In 2000, with 41% of the vote, they
received 172 of the 301 available > -> a bigger Majority. In the last Election
(June 28th, 2004), the Conservatives were ahead in most polls going into the
final three weeks. However, negative ads and sharp attacks by the Liberals
raised sufficient doubt in the public> '> s mind about the agenda of Stephen
Harper. In the final count, with just over 36% of the vote, the Liberals managed
to win a Minority government of 135 seats. So, while the gap of one or two
percent in the polls may seem insignificant to those tracking national polling
results, in reality it could well be the determinant of Minority or Majority
status.
>
> Based on the current state of the campaign, I would offer the following as the
most likely outcomes of the January 23rd election.
>
> Liberal Minority: As of today, this appears to be the most likely outcome. In
such an eventuality, it would be business as usual, although there is likely to
be a major reshuffling of Ministers and senior officials. Also, depending on the
margin of victory, it could well spell the beginning of the end for Paul Martin
as Liberal leader. No doubt, the knives will be out if the Liberals come close
to losing the government. However, Martin> '> s team has a firm grip on Liberal
Party infrastructure and it may be difficult to remove him as Leader if he
chooses to fight for his job. Conservative Leader Harper, on the other hand,
will likely be replaced shortly after any Liberal victory > -> even a Minority.
Harper> '> s demise may, in turn, increase pressure on the Liberals to rethink
Martin> '> s leadership of the Party. He will be 69.
>
> Conservative Minority: A major gaffe by the Liberals or a major upsurge in
Conservative support in key markets in Ontario and BC will be required to
engineer a Conservative victory. However, given the volatility of the electorate
and the fact that many Canadians have not yet tuned into the Election, anything
is possible. Should Stephen Harper win, there would be wholesale change in the
government agenda and massive change in the federal bureaucracy, particularly at
the Deputy Minister and PCO level. Liberal leader Martin will come under intense
pressure to resign.
>
> Liberal Majority: While it may look like a long-shot today, the electorate
appears to be quite volatile. As pointed out, even a modest change in the
popular vote can have dramatic results in terms of seats in the House of
Commons. At this point, the Liberals appear to be the only party with a chance
of forming a Majority government. Liberal support has edged at or near 40%
several times during this campaign.
>
> The pace of the campaign will enliven on January 3rd. Canadians will be
deluged with advertising and heightened rhetoric. The results on Election Day
will reflect the regional dynamic of the Canadian federation. However, with the
separatist Bloc Quebecois holding the > "> balance of power> "> in any Minority
Parliament, the dynamic for continued instability is considerable. Canada could
well be into another election within 18 months.

Some improvement: From mediocre to marginal

Lets not kid ourselves. Choosing between these four is a bit like deciding which skin disease you find least objectionable. Still, last night's debate was an improvement over Thursday's snoozefest.

Paul Martin did his usual upbeat peppy routine, which I think actually appeals to some people. Stephen Harper continued to work on his smile, which no longer seems so much like a grimace. Layton did his used-car salesman schtick, reverting to the persona we all find so grating. Duceppe, as usual, was eloquent, even in his second language --what a pity his vision is so at odds with most Canadians'.

Policy? Short on details, the lot of them. The gloves really came off when the subject turned to the US, and Martin came out swinging. He's starting to ease into this tough guy persona he has adopted, and seems increasingly comfortable wrapping himself in the Canadian flag. That's what he did when he launched a blistering attack on Duceppe and his "plans" for another sovereignty referendum.

He also attacked Harper on same-sex, which is definitely the achilles' heel in what has so far been a pretty solid Conservative Campaign. Martin seems to be solidifying his campaign around three themes that are widely seen as being his strengths, in spite of his very pronounced waffling on every one of them in the past:

He will defend the Charter (as opposed to Stephen Harper, who won't apparently, because he has a hidden agenda )

He will defend National Unity in this "referendum election" (presumably with the help of such staunch Federalists as Jean Lapierre)

He will stand up to the US and "call 'em like he sees 'em" (notwithstanding his Government's apparent impotence on BSE and soft wood)

Each of these wedge issues will likely pay dividends for Martin at the ballot box. At least two of the three could have very troubling implications for Canada once the dust settles and Martin is called to account by both Quebecers and our friends to the south.

Pretty short-sighted way to get back into power, if you ask me. But this is PM we are talking about, and we know that, in essence, it is power for power's sake that drives the man.

The tao of Moe

Man, you go through life, you try to be nice to people, you struggle to resist the urge to punch 'em in the face, and for what? For some pimply little puke to treat you like dirt unless you're on a team. Well, I'm better than dirt -- well, most kinds of dirt. I mean, not that fancy store-bought dirt. That stuff's loaded with nutrients. I -- I can't compete with that stuff.

Moe Syzlak

YAWN

In a well-intentioned attempt to bring a little civility to the debates after the 2004 debacle, the parties and networks ended up putting us to sleep with this first French debate under the new format.

Still, there were a couple of worthwhile tidbits in there... Martin's little hysterical fit about the Bloc gumming up the works in Ottawa; Harper pinning the PM with BMD; Layton flogging democratic reform and addressing Martin more than once.

The results? I suppose Duceppe won, but this debate won't change any minds. Layton set himself up as the most compassionate of the four --and well he should-- but did no more than perform adequately in his second language. Harper got off to a rough start, looking into the wrong camera for his opening statement, and struggling in French on several occasions --but it won't probably won't matter since the NDP and the Tories are not even on the radar in Quebec. This debate was Martin's to lose to Duceppe, but although Duceppe was by far the strongest presence on that set, Martin held his own. No knockout punch in this first round.

This just in: PM still a douchebag

As THIS old entry shows, I have longstanding antipathy towards our current Prime Minister. Although I honestly believe that Martin is a decent guy, I'm convinced that he is lacking in certain essential leadership qualities that allow him to truly succeed in the job he has wanted for so long. I also believe that
people he has surrounded himself with, a gang known as "The Board", are a real liability to him.

I'm starting to think that voters are catching on to this. Maybe the "Beer and Popcorn" fiasco has opened some eyes....

Many pundits are saying that in the end, we will end up with another Liberal Minority, just because the minute the Conservatives take the lead, "frightened" NDP voters will bolt to the Liberals. Well, if I could reach even one of those voters I would say:

Go ahead, Fear Harper. That's your god-given right as democratic socialists... but fear the Liberals more.... Martin has been speaking your language of late, but do Martin's promises really mean anything? Recall that this is the millionaire who supported the Iraq War and BMD, the guy you were all afraid was going to take the country to the right... Then, just when Jack Layton began holding his feet to the fire in the last parliament and he suddenly reversed course and became a born-again lefty who now chums around with Buzz Hargrove. Do you really think this conversion is genuine?

A Martin majority is still possible if les Rouges can stem the Bloc onslaught in Quebec, make gains in BC (already likely) and make enough Ontario ridings defect from the Tories and NDP. Several Liberal politicians have openly stated their goal of winning a majority.

On the other hand, a Conservative majority is a fantasy. Big bad scary Stephen, if he gets into 24 Sussex at all, will scrape in with a skin-of-his-teeth minority government. Therefore, if the Tories get in, the NDP will continue to call the tune - and the Tories will either dance, flirt with the separatists, or fall. That won't happen if Martin gets his majority, believe you me. watch for the shipping magnate's true colours to re-emerge if that happens... Corporate tax cuts, welcome back! Pull up a chair and sit a spell.

If you are an NDPer, vote for YOUR candidate. Voting against someone is a loser's strategy, because you are effectively penalizing your candidate to block another.

You only get to really exert some influence in a minority parliament. A Liberal majority is a remote possibility. A Conservative majority is not.

A Little Perspective

" I offically hate Bret Ratner now worse than Hitler" This was an AICN posting December 5th, 2005 of reaction to new X-men movie teaser trailer.

While Brian Singer, originally slated to direct, is adored by fans of the superhero genre, largely because of his two successful X-men adaptations, his replacement is considered a talentless hack by many AICN fanboys. Bret Ratner, who directed Red Dragon (which I like) and the Rush Hour flicks (which are mildly amusing)was brought on board when Singer left the third X-men movie because he was offered the job of directing Superman II.

What really made my day is this follow up post, a few minutes later, by Uncooked_Meat (that's some handle, Poindexter):

08:17:21 PM CST And thus, fellow talkbackers, we have seen the day when AICN
hyperbole reached truly epic proportions. A level which has not been seen
before, and will not see again. Let us sit and comtemplate it.

Canadian Unity Update

Back in the day, I wrote an angry rant about Edith Gebndron, real piece of work who somehow managed to ignore the absurd contradictions of her life and reconcile her high-paying Federal Public Service job at Canadian Heritage, a department dedicated to promoting a cohesive country, with her sovereigntist political ideology and activism in a group pursuing the breakup of Canada.

I am pleased to report that subsequently, Ms. Gendron's untenable career paradox ended when she was unceremoniously fired ass-over-tea-kettle out the door by Patrimoine Canadien. How did I discover this? I read this article, which tells us that Edith's husband, Richard Nadeau, is running for the Bloc in an Outaouais riding.

A belated congratulations to Edith on her firing (and her inevitable enshrinement in the pantheon of middle class martyrs of the sovereigniste cause) and best of luck to her as she embarks on the next stage of her life as the wife of a Bloc MP, a duty which will hopefully be free of the ethical dilemmas she seems so singularly ill-equipped to handle.

Election Insanity

Ya gotta love the campaign, folks. I mean, there is some genuinely hilarious stuff going on right now, as Politicians twist themselves into pretzels attempting to explain to us why "the other guys" will be soooo bad for Canada.

Belinda Stronach just blasted Stephen Harper for being willing to putting the country at risk for "Selfish political gain". Ms. Stronach, who can barely put two words together in French, unless it is to order the Terrine de confit de canard aux noix at Cafe Henry Burger, has seen fit to work La Belle Province into her speeches, claiming that bringing down the Liberal minority was "an ill-conceived assault" by Harper on federalism in Quebec.

Meanwhile, sources tell me that, in a vain attempt to appear more virile, our pension-eligible PM has been secretly studying the ancient secret techniques of Rum-Fu and will unleash his new skills with devastating effect on the leaders of the rival parties at the first televised debate.

Watch for that, people... it's gonna be awesome!

Rick Mercer works blue

And it's funny! Check out his blog, which features letters from the desks of Paul Martin and Stephen Harper as well as a Photo Challenge. My personal fave is "Drop the Writ Like it's Hot" With the Snoop D-O-double-G in the background. Priceless.

I'm engaged

Tonight, this lovely girl accepted my marriage proposal. 

Win by Losing

Toronto author, former Liberal advisor and Martin-hater Warren Kinsela expounds upon a theme that some wobbly Liberals may start to subscribe to if the campaign goes to shit:

Can a political party win by losing?
In the election campaign that effectively begins today, that is the question many Liberals are asking themselves. And, in quiet moments, many of them are concluding that losing power - not for a long time, but long enough - would be a good thing.
As a former senior Liberal cabinet minister told me just last week: "We need renewal. We need new people, we need new ideas, and we need the kind of things that can only come with some time in the penalty box. I can't believe I'm saying this, but we need to lose."

It is not an exaggeration to say that the Liberal Party of Canada is broken. Beset by a paucity of ideas and energy, struggling with mounting debt and scandals, riven by infighting and division, despairing of an ineffective cabinet and a dithering leader, the formerly great party of Pearson and Trudeau and Chrétien is great no more. Its soul is lost.

No better recent example of this can be found than in the sad drama that unfolded in the past few days in the Toronto riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore. For more than a decade, the riding had been ably represented by Jean Augustine - an honest, respected woman of colour who would have easily won re-election in 2006. But last week, as Ms. Augustine cried in the national Liberal caucus, disbelieving Members of Parliament learned that she was "stepping aside." Having endured nearly two years of bullying by Paul Martin's aides, few believed that Ms. Augustine was doing so willingly.

This week, Liberals in Etobicoke-Lakeshore witnessed the astonishing spectacle of hard-working local Grits being excluded from the process - literally denied entry to party headquarters, whilst Mr. Martin's minions inside ignored their pleas to open the doors. And, shortly thereafter, the locked-out Liberals learned in the media that Ms. Augustine's successor had already been decided - a white man and foreign resident named Michael Ignatieff.

The Globe and Mail and a few members of Toronto's brie-and-chardonnay chattering classes have been championing Mr. Ignatieff for many months, now, talking him up as a successor to Mr. Martin. Despite the fact that Mr. Ignatieff has not lived in Canada for more than two decades - despite the fact he supports George W. Bush's illegal war in Iraq, opposition to which remains one of Jean Chrétien's most popular legacies - Mr. Martin and his bunkered circle of advisors were undeterred.

Mr. Ignatieff, a Harvard University professor and author, arguably possesses an impressive curriculum vitae, as do many of the other rumoured aspirants to the Liberal Party crown - among them former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna, former Minister of Justice Martin Cauchon, or former Ontario Premier (and former NDP member) Bob Rae. All of these impressive men (no women among them so far, another telling indicator of the Liberal Party's state of disrepair) would be laudable candidates for leadership.

But - and I say this as one who possesses no enthusiasm whatsoever for Mr. Martin's leadership nor the insular group around him - what the Liberal Party needs is much more than a leadership race. A leadership race will not attract the sorts of things the Liberal Party of Canada desperately needs: new ideas, new approaches, new people and a new generation of leadership. What Liberals need is not just a new leader -what Liberals need is a new Liberal Party.

Power, which Liberals have been privileged to wield since 1993, tends to have a corrosive effect on political parties. Cabinet ministers and Parliamentary secretaries start spending more time in Ottawa than in their ridings; senior staff and Parliamentarians socialize with deputy ministers instead of local mayors and community leaders; the opinions of national media columnists take on a greater significance than the voices raised in town hall meetings and church basements.

In time, Liberals (and, before that, Conservatives) find that they have lost touch with the people they were hired to represent. They start to make mistakes, as they did again in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. They become, in effect, what they were sent to Ottawa to change.

Thus the Liberal Party of Canada, circa 2005 A.D. Dispirited, disliked and divided in much of the country - and spared the loss of power only by the fact that their principal adversaries are (for now) distrusted by many female voters. Too many Liberals confuse the Conservatives' continuing inability to win an election with enthusiasm for the alternative. One day - and one day soon, I believe - the Conservative Party will attract the support of enough Canadians, and Liberals will bitterly rue the day they forsook renewal.

Some Liberals, and all of Paul Martin's sect, will dismiss all of this as the carping of an exiled Chrétien-era Liberal, naturally. That is their way. Their cloistered arrogance - their near-total inability to make out the country that lies beyond the Parliamentary precinct - led to the loss of Mr. Chrétien's majority and, a few weeks hence, will further reduce the dimensions their listing, listless minority government. Their opinion, at long last, counts for nothing.

For the rest of us, however - for a majority of Canadians and, I believe, for a silent number of traditional Liberals - we know that an election loss would be a good thing. For the country, and for a once-great political party, too.