Re-alignment

Will the centre hold? Jack Layton's message is shifting. While it isn't exactly what I suggested a while ago --that the NDP could work with a Conservative Government on common issues like electoral reform and accountability-- for the Tories, it's probably the next best thing. If Paul Martin does not "deserve" to be re-elected because of the pathetic campaign he has run, a simple process of elimination tells us that Layton is acknowledging the likelihood of a Conservative government.

Pragmatically, smiling Jack is mostly limiting his criticism of the Tories to ideology: "Conservatives are wrong on the issues that matter to Canadians". Knowing that Harper will probably form the next Government, if Layton continues to pound on the Martin regime, he may prevent NDP defections to the Grits on election night. But that isn't whole story. Calls for "disappointed" Liberals to join forces with the NDP this election are calculated to reverse the 2004 election trend. Layton is actually hoping left-leaning Liberals will abandon the Martin regime and flock to the NDP.

Such a development could signify the biggest re-alignment in Canadian politics in nearly a decade-and-a-half: A polarization of the political landscape, as voters abandon the "centrist" Liberal party, and vote ideologically, strengthening the mainstream right or left wing parties (or the Bloc or Greens, for that matter). This trend could decimate the Liberals outside of their traditional urban strongholds, paving the way for the Bloc to become the Official Opposition.

But of course, this is all speculation... and alot can change in a week!

Don't call the coroner yet

So, we have been led to believe that the Grit corpse is almost done twitching. The last bullet wound appears to have been self-inflicted, strangely enough. Should we blame lousy marksmanship?

And yet, while we may be tempted to draw a sheet over the body, and wheel it out on a gurney, the paramedics are still working away feverishly. Chances are, they will keep working on it long after it begins to stink. After all, it stank while it was still alive and kicking.

Prepare for impact in 3...2...

To protect his lead, all Harper needed to do in tonight's debate was to appear calm, statesmanlike, not freak out, keep hammering home his platform.

He achieved that.

Layton needed to slam both the Conservatives and the Liberals to position himself as the "third option".

That's exactly what he did.

Duceppe just needed to show up, and have fun poking at the other three.

No problem there.

To halt Tory momentum, Martin needed to hit one out of the park, and convince voters that Harper hates Canada, and was going to destroy Confederation and voluntarily surrender Canada to nefarious Republican interests.

Uh... didn't quite pull it off, did he?