Expect more on this....

Coyne highlights new conventional wisdom out there in blogland --Central thesis: The urban-rural split is a fallacy, a media myth Tories outpolled the Liberals in Quebec City, Ottawa, Regina, Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton, and St. John's. Outside the three metropolises, the Tories won 33 seats to the Liberals 7.

There is actually an idea floating now of an MTV/rest-of-Canada divide, caused largely by overwhelming immigrant support of the Liberals. (picking up on the stat that three quarters of immigrants settle in MTV).

Coyne says: "He may or may not be right to attribute the difference to the immigrant vote. I'd say that was a subset of a larger phenomenon of cosmopolitanism. Big-city diversity has many faces: ethnicity, language, class, sexual orientation, etc. Tories have got to show they get this. (In particular, the sooner they put the gay marriage issue behind them the better.)"

How will this affect Conservative policies toward regionalizing immigration? I'm willing to bet that "spreading 'em around" is going to become a bigger priority.

Something to think about...

Will the Board fall on their swords?

I predicted:

LIBS 96 / CONS 120 / NDP 30 / BLOC 62

Actual:

LIBS 103 / CONS 124 / NDP 29 / BLOC 51 / IND 1

(difference +7 / -4 / -1/ -11)

Two things I did not anticipate:

The refusal of much of Ontario to swing over to Harper (meant less Tory seats in Ontario, same trend seen in BC)
The unexpected Conservative breakthrough in Quebec (meant a few more Tories in Quebec, alot less Bloc)

My verdict: A good night for the Federation. The West got in. We now have two
national parties, and a discredited Bloc that has lost all momentum now that the Gomery thing has been put to bed.


1 Samuel 31, King James Bible
Now the Philistines fought against Israel: and the men of Israel fled from before the Philistines, and fell down slain in mount Gilboa.

And the Philistines followed hard upon Saul and upon his sons; and the Philistines slew Jonathan, and Abinadab, and Melchishua, Saul's sons.

And the battle went sore against Saul,and the archers hit him; and he was sore wounded of the archers.

Then said Saul unto his armourbearer, Draw thy sword, and thrust me through therewith; lest these uncircumcised come and thrust me through, and abuse me. But his armourbearer would not; for he was sore afraid. Therefore Saul took a sword, and fell upon it.

And when his armourbearer saw that Saul was dead, he fell likewise upon his sword, and died with him.

So Saul died, and his three sons, and his armourbearer, and all his men, that same day together.

From today's Globe


Most fingers were pointed at the so-called board, the close group of strategists around Mr. Martin, such as David Herle, Scott Reid, Tim Murphy, Terrie O'Leary and Michele Cadario.

One long-time Liberal was harshly critical of this group. "They are mean people," said the Liberal organizer. "They have destroyed the reputation and integrity of a brilliant world businessman . . . because of their own egos." He said that the board members are "finished."

"No leadership contender, if there is a leadership, will be seen in the same room as them," he said.


Postscripts:

I have been convinced for some time now that there are two new solitudes in Canada. THIS confirms it.

Toronto is entitled to its entitlements!

Tonight, Canada gave itself a high-colonic

I was pretty close with my predictions. Not sure exactly how close, since I left my seat projection at work. In spite of the best efforts of some in the MSM to try to paint tonight as a "disappointment" for the Conservatives, the fact remains that Stephen Harper will be moving from Stornoway to 24 Sussex. He broke through in Quebec--beyond anyone's expectations, and made some marginal improvements in Ontario. That's what he needed to do, and he did it.

Particularly skewed coverage was provided, as usual, by the Mothercorp: at one point the following factoid crawled across the bottom of the screen--Liberals and NDP have more seats than the Conservatives... so-f*cking-what? The Conservatives won a plurality of seats -- any way you slice it, they get to govern, notwithstanding any "spin" that attempts to portray a half-victory, or a "technical" win. Today is a good day for Federalism, for our political process, and --with voter turnouts up from 2004--for our democracy.

Like Harper said in his speech "The West is in"... now how long can they stay in?

"A hierarchichal ape that did not like being bossed around"

That's how an anthropologist on CBC News Sunday describes the common ancestor of humans and apes in a clever little item that shows the paralels between our political process and the social behaviour of chimps. Intercutting clips of chimpanzees growling, babbling and attacking each other in the wild with scenes of the party leaders gladhanding and posturing, it's a wonderfully subversive piece. Why no shots of chimps flinging poo, though?

Well, tomorrow, all the chimps will climb out of their trees to get a look at the situation on the ground.

The media sez:

Liberal midshipmen are putting on their dress uniforms to go stand on the burning deck Martin is lashing himself to the mast.

Tequila Sheila is carving Junior's tombstone Conservative Majority you say?

The irrepressible Greg Weston starts counting Cabinet chickens before they hatch

The Venerable Doug Fisher passes sentence

Warren bathes in schadenfreude Revenge of the Soccer Moms? Yup, I think so!

The Coshster weighs in with his eleventh-hour prediction. A fellow cynic; Colby's seat prediction is pretty close to mine.

And then there"s Maude! Barlow, Paul Martin's new second-most bestest friend (after Basil "Fawlty" Hargrove), continues to show Jack Layton why he should give her the cold shoulder (or the finger) after this election.

DAIFALLAH! Is it just me, or does the young fellow's name sound like some kind of warcry? Adam gives us the skinny on Quebec.

Paul Wells, the most consistently anti-Martin commentator I have ever seen, does what he does best

Coyne continues his systematic dismantling of Liberal puffery and misdirection

Finally, The Master seems to see the light at the end of the tunnel