Swompdonkey

e-mail I got today from a reliable source:

> This guy is a paid consultant who got all but one seat called correctly in the
last election.
> Memorandum
> 20 December 2005
>
>
>
> Subject: Election 2006 Midway Update
>
> As the political leaders take a break for Christmas, I thought that it would
be useful to consider the state of the campaign and provide some insight into
possible outcomes.
>
> To begin, we should look briefly at the current standing in the House of
Commons:
>
> Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Other Total
> Newfoundland/Labrador 5 2 0 0 0 7
> Nova Scotia 6 3 2 0 0 11
> New Brunswick 7 2 1 0 0 10
> PEI 4 0 0 0 0 4
> Quebec 21 0 0 54 0 75
> Ontario 74 23 7 0 2 106
> Manitoba 3 7 3 0 1 14
> Saskatchewan 1 13 0 0 0 14
> Alberta 1 26 0 0 1 28
> British Columbia 8 22 0 0 1 36
> Northern Territories 3 0 0 0 0 3
> Total 133 98 18 54 5 308
>
> Canadian elections are rarely homogenous single issue campaigns. In reality,
Canada will have five distinct regional campaigns (plus the North), each with
its own inter-party dynamic and regional issues. Thus, Election 2006 will be
fought in six distinct battlegrounds: the Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, the West,
British Columbia and the North.
>
>
>
>
> Since the campaign began on November 29th, the Liberals have never been behind
in a National opinion poll. Only Ipsos-Reid has shown the Liberals and
Conservatives tied at 31% each > -> and that was on day one of the campaign.
Subsequent Ipsos-Reid polls (3) all have the Liberals ahead by several points.
Other pollsters have given the lead to the Liberals by as much as 10%. The true
dynamic of the National campaign will not become evident until the final push
post-Christmas when both the party advertising and Leaders> '> rhetoric are
expected to go negative.
>
> Two firms (SES and Strategic Counsel) are doing daily updates to Tracking
polls > -> these are smaller sample sizes than National surveys that are
aggregated over several days to provide a good read of the trend-lines for
voting intentions. Interestingly, the two Tracking polls seem to contradict each
other. SES has consistently given the Liberals a significant lead > -> as wide
as 15% at the end of week one, but narrowed to only 8% in the most recent
samples. The Strategic Counsel, on the other hand, has shown a much tighter
race, with the two parties in a virtually dead heat for the first several weeks.
In its most recent samples, the Liberals have been ahead by roughly 5%. You
should note that the SES numbers are closer to the results from other larger
National polls than are those of the Strategic Counsel. The Tracking polls may
provide the most interesting data as the election unfolds and should be watched
as the campaign shifts to the pro-active phase after Christmas.
>
> So what does the current Regional picture look like? Regional political
strength at dissolution of the House of Commons is shown below, i.e. total seats
in Parliament.
>
> Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Independent
> BC 36 8 22 5 0 1
> West 56 4 46 3 0 2
> Ontario 106 74 23 7 0 2
> Quebec 75 21 0 0 54 0
> Atlantic 32 22 7 3 0 0
> North 3 3 0 0 0 0
> Total 308 133 98 18 54 5
>
> British Columbia: The BC campaign appears to be the tightest race in the
country. In most polls since the Election was called, Liberal, Conservative and
NDP numbers have been virtually tied > -> within the margin of polling error.
The most recent SES Tracking poll, however, shows the Liberals with a slim lead,
and the NDP losing s> upport to the Conservatives. Liberal and NDP strength lies
in the Lower Mainland; and the Conservatives remain strong in the rest of the
province. I would expect that as the race turns negative, the vote will polarize
between the Liberals and the Conservatives and the NDP vote will be reduced. In
a close National race, BC could be the King-maker in 2006.
>
> The West: Alberta and Saskatchewan remain Conservative strong-holds. The only
non-Conservative seats in the two provinces are Anne McLellan in Edmonton and
Ralph Goodale in Regina. (Independent David Kilgour> '> s seat in Edmonton is
expected to return to the Conservative fold.)
>
>
> Both have gone against the stream to win in the past and they could survive
again. Anne McLellan appears to be vulnerable this time. Manitoba, with some
interesting three way local races, could bring a few surprises for all parties.
Manitoba is the only Western province where parties other than the Conservatives
have a reasonable chance of winning or keeping seats.
>
> Ontario: The Liberals started strong and appear to be holding a substantial
lead over the Conservatives. It is expected that Stephen Harper will target key
ridings in South West and Rural Ontario, and selected ridings elsewhere. Recent
polls (SES particularly) have noted an increase in Conservative support in these
areas. There is also some encouragement for them in Toronto itself. So far,
National polls give the edge to the Liberals in Ontario. In the final three
weeks of the campaign, the NDP could be squeezed as in BC if the electorate
becomes polarized around the stark choice between the Conservatives and the
Liberals. In Ontario, so far, the Liberals strongest card appears to be Stephen
Harper. As long as Harper does not > "> break through> "> in Ontario, the last
Liberal bastion will hold.
>
> Quebec: In Quebec, the race is between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals,
with the BQ anticipating additional seats in Montreal> '> s > "> red zone> "> .
Liberal Ministers Pierre Pettigrew, Liza Frulla, Jacques Saada and Jean Lapierre
are all in tight races to retain their seats. Two other races to watch are
Pontiac (where Conservative candidate, Lawrence Cannon, is running a strong race
against Liberal incumbent, David Smith) and Vaudreuil-Solanges (where former
Astronaut Marc Garneau is trying to win the seat back for the Liberals from BQ
incumbent Meilli Faille). The BQ currently hold 54 of the 75 seats in Quebec,
and have a substantial lead (> 20%) in all polls. It is expected that the BQ
will add seats to their total, but how many will depend on the dynamic of the
final three weeks. While recent Tracking polls show slight movement to the
Liberals, the advantage remains with the Bloc.
>
> Atlantic: Given current polls in this region, it is doubtful that there will
be much change from the last Election. Liberal support appears to be growing at
the expense of the Conservatives. However, the results in the Atlantic region
often run contrary to National trends. In 1997, when the Liberals won a thin
Majority government, the Atlantic region voted massively for the Conservative
party, displacing numerous incumbents, including high profile Liberal Ministers
David Dingwall and Doug Young.
>
> The North: The North cannot be counted as a separate region, per se, given
that there are only three seats. That said, the status quo is likely to prevail
with the Liberals retaining all three seats.
>
> Conclusions: The Bloc Quebecois are expected to dominate in Quebec,
effectively removing up to 60 of the 308 seats from the calculations of the
other two National parties > -> all but guaranteeing that the next Parliament
will be another Minority government. As of today, this is still a Liberal
Minority Parliament. With the exception of the Strategic Counsel Tracking poll,
the consensus among pollsters (Ipsos-Reid, SES, Leger, Ekos, Decima) is that the
Liberals have a growing lead of 6 - 8% and currently sit at 36 - 38%. Most
troubling for the Conservatives is that they have been unable to post consistent
numbers above 30% nationally > -> despite the multitude of issues confronting
the Liberal Party (Gomery, HRDC, Gun Registry, and more). Pollara has just
released a poll showing the Conservatives at 34% nationally. The Liberals are at
37% in the same poll.
>
>
>
>
> It appears that the first series of Debates changed the voting intentions of
very few Canadians. There will be a second series of Debates on January 9 -10,
and it is expected that the attacks will become more personal and negative. The
serious phase of the campaign begins on January 3rd.
>
> I will offer no firm predictions yet. However, you may want to consider that
in 1997, when the Liberals received 39% of the popular vote, they were rewarded
with 155 of the 301 seats > -> a Majority. In 2000, with 41% of the vote, they
received 172 of the 301 available > -> a bigger Majority. In the last Election
(June 28th, 2004), the Conservatives were ahead in most polls going into the
final three weeks. However, negative ads and sharp attacks by the Liberals
raised sufficient doubt in the public> '> s mind about the agenda of Stephen
Harper. In the final count, with just over 36% of the vote, the Liberals managed
to win a Minority government of 135 seats. So, while the gap of one or two
percent in the polls may seem insignificant to those tracking national polling
results, in reality it could well be the determinant of Minority or Majority
status.
>
> Based on the current state of the campaign, I would offer the following as the
most likely outcomes of the January 23rd election.
>
> Liberal Minority: As of today, this appears to be the most likely outcome. In
such an eventuality, it would be business as usual, although there is likely to
be a major reshuffling of Ministers and senior officials. Also, depending on the
margin of victory, it could well spell the beginning of the end for Paul Martin
as Liberal leader. No doubt, the knives will be out if the Liberals come close
to losing the government. However, Martin> '> s team has a firm grip on Liberal
Party infrastructure and it may be difficult to remove him as Leader if he
chooses to fight for his job. Conservative Leader Harper, on the other hand,
will likely be replaced shortly after any Liberal victory > -> even a Minority.
Harper> '> s demise may, in turn, increase pressure on the Liberals to rethink
Martin> '> s leadership of the Party. He will be 69.
>
> Conservative Minority: A major gaffe by the Liberals or a major upsurge in
Conservative support in key markets in Ontario and BC will be required to
engineer a Conservative victory. However, given the volatility of the electorate
and the fact that many Canadians have not yet tuned into the Election, anything
is possible. Should Stephen Harper win, there would be wholesale change in the
government agenda and massive change in the federal bureaucracy, particularly at
the Deputy Minister and PCO level. Liberal leader Martin will come under intense
pressure to resign.
>
> Liberal Majority: While it may look like a long-shot today, the electorate
appears to be quite volatile. As pointed out, even a modest change in the
popular vote can have dramatic results in terms of seats in the House of
Commons. At this point, the Liberals appear to be the only party with a chance
of forming a Majority government. Liberal support has edged at or near 40%
several times during this campaign.
>
> The pace of the campaign will enliven on January 3rd. Canadians will be
deluged with advertising and heightened rhetoric. The results on Election Day
will reflect the regional dynamic of the Canadian federation. However, with the
separatist Bloc Quebecois holding the > "> balance of power> "> in any Minority
Parliament, the dynamic for continued instability is considerable. Canada could
well be into another election within 18 months.