Re-alignment
Will the centre hold? Jack Layton's message is shifting. While it isn't exactly what I suggested a while ago --that the NDP could work with a Conservative Government on common issues like electoral reform and accountability-- for the Tories, it's probably the next best thing. If Paul Martin does not "deserve" to be re-elected because of the pathetic campaign he has run, a simple process of elimination tells us that Layton is acknowledging the likelihood of a Conservative government.
Pragmatically, smiling Jack is mostly limiting his criticism of the Tories to ideology: "Conservatives are wrong on the issues that matter to Canadians". Knowing that Harper will probably form the next Government, if Layton continues to pound on the Martin regime, he may prevent NDP defections to the Grits on election night. But that isn't whole story. Calls for "disappointed" Liberals to join forces with the NDP this election are calculated to reverse the 2004 election trend. Layton is actually hoping left-leaning Liberals will abandon the Martin regime and flock to the NDP.
Such a development could signify the biggest re-alignment in Canadian politics in nearly a decade-and-a-half: A polarization of the political landscape, as voters abandon the "centrist" Liberal party, and vote ideologically, strengthening the mainstream right or left wing parties (or the Bloc or Greens, for that matter). This trend could decimate the Liberals outside of their traditional urban strongholds, paving the way for the Bloc to become the Official Opposition.
But of course, this is all speculation... and alot can change in a week!
Saturday, January 14, 2006
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Don't call the coroner yet
So, we have been led to believe that the Grit corpse is almost done twitching. The last bullet wound appears to have been self-inflicted, strangely enough. Should we blame lousy marksmanship?
And yet, while we may be tempted to draw a sheet over the body, and wheel it out on a gurney, the paramedics are still working away feverishly. Chances are, they will keep working on it long after it begins to stink. After all, it stank while it was still alive and kicking.
So, we have been led to believe that the Grit corpse is almost done twitching. The last bullet wound appears to have been self-inflicted, strangely enough. Should we blame lousy marksmanship?
And yet, while we may be tempted to draw a sheet over the body, and wheel it out on a gurney, the paramedics are still working away feverishly. Chances are, they will keep working on it long after it begins to stink. After all, it stank while it was still alive and kicking.
Monday, January 09, 2006
Prepare for impact in 3...2...
To protect his lead, all Harper needed to do in tonight's debate was to appear calm, statesmanlike, not freak out, keep hammering home his platform.
He achieved that.
Layton needed to slam both the Conservatives and the Liberals to position himself as the "third option".
That's exactly what he did.
Duceppe just needed to show up, and have fun poking at the other three.
No problem there.
To halt Tory momentum, Martin needed to hit one out of the park, and convince voters that Harper hates Canada, and was going to destroy Confederation and voluntarily surrender Canada to nefarious Republican interests.
Uh... didn't quite pull it off, did he?
To protect his lead, all Harper needed to do in tonight's debate was to appear calm, statesmanlike, not freak out, keep hammering home his platform.
He achieved that.
Layton needed to slam both the Conservatives and the Liberals to position himself as the "third option".
That's exactly what he did.
Duceppe just needed to show up, and have fun poking at the other three.
No problem there.
To halt Tory momentum, Martin needed to hit one out of the park, and convince voters that Harper hates Canada, and was going to destroy Confederation and voluntarily surrender Canada to nefarious Republican interests.
Uh... didn't quite pull it off, did he?
Saturday, January 07, 2006
So, have I ever told you that I did Basic Officer Training with one of the only Canadian soldiers to have engaged in combat between the Korean War and Afghanistan?...
Let me explain:
I only came to this realization last week, while reading Carol Off's new book, The Ghosts of Medak pocket, which my brother had gotten for me as a Christmas Present.
In the summer of 1997, I was in Gagetown, New Brunswick, suffering through RESO (Reserve Entry Scheme Officer), Phase 2 training. Our platoon was evenly divided between two groups. One the one hand, you had the mostly older (twentysomething) Reservists, many of whom had been Corporals (like me) or Sergeants in the Militia, and some of whom had done UN tours overseas in the early nineties in Bosnia and Croatia. On the other hand, you had the Regular Force "Ringnockers", as we called them: People from the Royal Military College. As a rule, these Officer Cadets tended to be younger, and extremely green, since most had gone directly from highschool to RMC. Most of them were hopeless at the beginning of the course, and many were hopeless right up to the end. There were, however, exceptions to this rule.
One of the exceptions was Scott Leblanc, a short, burly fellow in his mid-twenties with a friendly face, quiet manner, and bright blue eyes. When I first met him, aside from the fact that he was an older Officer Cadet at RMC, there was nothing remarkable about him. As time went on, some of the guys who had gone overseas in the early nineties would talk about Croatia and what happened to 2PPCLI (The Second Battalion of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry) in the Medak Pocket. Every once in a while, someone would ask Scott about his decoration for his actions during a firefight which had never been made public, but the laconic former Artillery Reservist from the Maritimes who was not much of a braggart never seemed to have much to say about it. Even the instructors seemed aware of the "incident", which at this time, was fairly common knowledge among infantrymen. The Canadian Forces is not a huge organization, after all, and word seems to get around. We never really got the full story from Scott, only that in 1993, then-Private Leblanc's platoon had fought off an attack by Croatian forces during the course of a very dangerous operation in 1993. All that Leblanc would admit to is that he had burned off a couple of hundred rounds from his C-9 Light Machine Gun, and that the Croats had been repulsed.
I only got the full story when I read Off's account of that action, which included references to Leblanc and his section's heroics. It was easy to understand why this "incident" had never been made public. This fight occurred in '93, at almost the same time that the Somalia scandal broke, and Canadians had been shaken by the acts of the soon-to-be-disbanded Airborne Regiment. It simply wouldn't do to have another story in the media where Canadian troops, ostensibly involved in UN "Peacekeeping Operations", had been engaged in combat, and had probably killed Croat troops (The Croat government reported 27 KIA during combat in the Pocket).
Well, as we now know, the UN operations that took place in the Balkans in the early nineties were certainly not what would have been considered peacekeeping in the traditional sense of the word. It was an ugly, complicated conflict, and Canadian troops had been called upon to interpose themselves between the Serb and Croat forces in an attempt to halt the ethnic cleansing that we now know took place in that area. In spite of being hamstrung by complicated rules of engagement, the Canadians had acquitted themselves admirably, although many were scarred by what they saw there, and frustrated that because of the UN-imposed rules, they had not managed to prevent the murder of dozens of innocents. At the time, however, that isn't the way that the leadership of the Canadian Forces saw it, and so, as Off relates in her book, the brass decided to cover up the Medak Pocket incident. It wasn't until much later that the truth began leaking out. And only recently have the troops involved in that operation been fully recognized for what they did. Some of the members of the PPCLI Battle Group who were there have never recovered, mentally or physically.
In Summer of 1997, Scott, who four years earlier had, in the midst of heavy fire, bravely risen from his trench to fire his machine-gun into a Croat force attempting to flank his platoons position, and probably saved some of his comrades in doing so, ended up coming in second place overall on the course. Top candidate in my company was another RMC type, Ryan Latinovitch, who had transferred to the Infantry late in his time at RMC, and was therefore also older than most of the Regular Force Officer Cadets. Last I heard, Ryan was a Captain in command of 3PPCLI's Recce (Reconnaissance) Platoon,and done a tour in Afghanistan. I admire both of these guys.
The days of Suez or Cyprus-style "peacekeeping" are long past. Today, the Canadian Forces operate under very different and far more dangerous situations, and have been called upon to use lethal force more than once to protect themselves and achieve their objectives. The national myth of Canadian peacekeepers as benign observers should be put to rest. Canadian soldiers are trained to fight, and they do it very well, when they have to. Canada should be proud that men and women of the calibre of Leblanc and Latinovitch serve this country, put themselves in harm's way, and sacrifice so much for the rest of us.
Let me explain:
I only came to this realization last week, while reading Carol Off's new book, The Ghosts of Medak pocket, which my brother had gotten for me as a Christmas Present.
In the summer of 1997, I was in Gagetown, New Brunswick, suffering through RESO (Reserve Entry Scheme Officer), Phase 2 training. Our platoon was evenly divided between two groups. One the one hand, you had the mostly older (twentysomething) Reservists, many of whom had been Corporals (like me) or Sergeants in the Militia, and some of whom had done UN tours overseas in the early nineties in Bosnia and Croatia. On the other hand, you had the Regular Force "Ringnockers", as we called them: People from the Royal Military College. As a rule, these Officer Cadets tended to be younger, and extremely green, since most had gone directly from highschool to RMC. Most of them were hopeless at the beginning of the course, and many were hopeless right up to the end. There were, however, exceptions to this rule.
One of the exceptions was Scott Leblanc, a short, burly fellow in his mid-twenties with a friendly face, quiet manner, and bright blue eyes. When I first met him, aside from the fact that he was an older Officer Cadet at RMC, there was nothing remarkable about him. As time went on, some of the guys who had gone overseas in the early nineties would talk about Croatia and what happened to 2PPCLI (The Second Battalion of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry) in the Medak Pocket. Every once in a while, someone would ask Scott about his decoration for his actions during a firefight which had never been made public, but the laconic former Artillery Reservist from the Maritimes who was not much of a braggart never seemed to have much to say about it. Even the instructors seemed aware of the "incident", which at this time, was fairly common knowledge among infantrymen. The Canadian Forces is not a huge organization, after all, and word seems to get around. We never really got the full story from Scott, only that in 1993, then-Private Leblanc's platoon had fought off an attack by Croatian forces during the course of a very dangerous operation in 1993. All that Leblanc would admit to is that he had burned off a couple of hundred rounds from his C-9 Light Machine Gun, and that the Croats had been repulsed.
I only got the full story when I read Off's account of that action, which included references to Leblanc and his section's heroics. It was easy to understand why this "incident" had never been made public. This fight occurred in '93, at almost the same time that the Somalia scandal broke, and Canadians had been shaken by the acts of the soon-to-be-disbanded Airborne Regiment. It simply wouldn't do to have another story in the media where Canadian troops, ostensibly involved in UN "Peacekeeping Operations", had been engaged in combat, and had probably killed Croat troops (The Croat government reported 27 KIA during combat in the Pocket).
Well, as we now know, the UN operations that took place in the Balkans in the early nineties were certainly not what would have been considered peacekeeping in the traditional sense of the word. It was an ugly, complicated conflict, and Canadian troops had been called upon to interpose themselves between the Serb and Croat forces in an attempt to halt the ethnic cleansing that we now know took place in that area. In spite of being hamstrung by complicated rules of engagement, the Canadians had acquitted themselves admirably, although many were scarred by what they saw there, and frustrated that because of the UN-imposed rules, they had not managed to prevent the murder of dozens of innocents. At the time, however, that isn't the way that the leadership of the Canadian Forces saw it, and so, as Off relates in her book, the brass decided to cover up the Medak Pocket incident. It wasn't until much later that the truth began leaking out. And only recently have the troops involved in that operation been fully recognized for what they did. Some of the members of the PPCLI Battle Group who were there have never recovered, mentally or physically.
In Summer of 1997, Scott, who four years earlier had, in the midst of heavy fire, bravely risen from his trench to fire his machine-gun into a Croat force attempting to flank his platoons position, and probably saved some of his comrades in doing so, ended up coming in second place overall on the course. Top candidate in my company was another RMC type, Ryan Latinovitch, who had transferred to the Infantry late in his time at RMC, and was therefore also older than most of the Regular Force Officer Cadets. Last I heard, Ryan was a Captain in command of 3PPCLI's Recce (Reconnaissance) Platoon,and done a tour in Afghanistan. I admire both of these guys.
The days of Suez or Cyprus-style "peacekeeping" are long past. Today, the Canadian Forces operate under very different and far more dangerous situations, and have been called upon to use lethal force more than once to protect themselves and achieve their objectives. The national myth of Canadian peacekeepers as benign observers should be put to rest. Canadian soldiers are trained to fight, and they do it very well, when they have to. Canada should be proud that men and women of the calibre of Leblanc and Latinovitch serve this country, put themselves in harm's way, and sacrifice so much for the rest of us.
I waited a long time to see Fahrenheit 9/11, now here is my three-and-a-half word review:
Mendacious, misleading grief-porn
Mendacious, misleading grief-porn
Monday, January 02, 2006
The Electoral Reform Parliament?
On New Year's Eve, I was deep into a discussion on the election campaign with some of my fiance's family, speculating on all sorts of scenarios the morning after the polls close, when someone raised a fairly straightforward question:
In the event of a Conservative minority, what issue could the NDP and the Conservatives possibly find common ground on?
My answer: Fixing our democracy and changing the way we vote
As
this article reveals, both the Knee-dippers and the Tories lament the fact that our "First-past-the-post" system tends to exagerate and distort voting patterns, leading to the impression that "Alberta is Conservative" and "Ontario is Liberal", when in fact no region or province in the country votes as a homogenous bloc, and vote percentages are nearly always much narrower than final seat tallies would indicate. That's how some parties have won solid electoral majorities in the past in spite of not necessarily garnering a large plurality of the popular vote --Jean Chretien's back-to-back-to-back majorities comes to mind.
Both parties favour electoral reform in some form or another, mostly in order to fix a system that seems designed to produce Liberal Government after Liberal Government, often at the expense of the NDP and smaller parties. A proportional representation system, or some combination of A and B, might be a solution to this problem. One which Conservatives and NDPers could work on together in spite of the ideological chasm that divides them. I can think of a few more. Senate reform, for example.
The "strategic voting" phenom of 2004 (soft NDP supporters who switched to the Liberals in the polling booth because a Conservative victory "scares" them) must be a spectre that loom large in the mind of Jack Layton. Although pundits indicate that Layton favours holding the balance of power in a Liberal Minority, his "Results for Canadians" campaign theme could get flushed down the crapper in 2006, if the Liberals steal his votes and a puny, impotent NDP caucus results.
It is clear that the NDP has choices to make. Generally, sending more NDPers to the house means sending less Liberals, because that is where the electorate on the centre-left intersects. The story is a bit different in BC, where you have three-way horse races, and in Quebec, where the NDP and Conservatives barely register, but in Ontario, the 900lb gorilla in the Canadian electorate, NDP fortunes will live or die depending on how many 905ers get spooked back to the Grits.
Knowing this in his heart, can Layton make common cause with the Tories and convince people to not fear a non-Liberal Government in the second half of the campaign in order to steal some Liberal seats? I'm not sure. I imagine he recoils in disgust at having to do so. But both the NDP and the Tories have stated their desire to see the Liberals punished --what better way to do so than being bounced from Government? --and it is useful to look at areas of possible collaboration in a house with a decimated grit caucus, a strong NDP, and a fragile Conservative minority looking to get things done.
On New Year's Eve, I was deep into a discussion on the election campaign with some of my fiance's family, speculating on all sorts of scenarios the morning after the polls close, when someone raised a fairly straightforward question:
In the event of a Conservative minority, what issue could the NDP and the Conservatives possibly find common ground on?
My answer: Fixing our democracy and changing the way we vote
As
this article reveals, both the Knee-dippers and the Tories lament the fact that our "First-past-the-post" system tends to exagerate and distort voting patterns, leading to the impression that "Alberta is Conservative" and "Ontario is Liberal", when in fact no region or province in the country votes as a homogenous bloc, and vote percentages are nearly always much narrower than final seat tallies would indicate. That's how some parties have won solid electoral majorities in the past in spite of not necessarily garnering a large plurality of the popular vote --Jean Chretien's back-to-back-to-back majorities comes to mind.
Both parties favour electoral reform in some form or another, mostly in order to fix a system that seems designed to produce Liberal Government after Liberal Government, often at the expense of the NDP and smaller parties. A proportional representation system, or some combination of A and B, might be a solution to this problem. One which Conservatives and NDPers could work on together in spite of the ideological chasm that divides them. I can think of a few more. Senate reform, for example.
The "strategic voting" phenom of 2004 (soft NDP supporters who switched to the Liberals in the polling booth because a Conservative victory "scares" them) must be a spectre that loom large in the mind of Jack Layton. Although pundits indicate that Layton favours holding the balance of power in a Liberal Minority, his "Results for Canadians" campaign theme could get flushed down the crapper in 2006, if the Liberals steal his votes and a puny, impotent NDP caucus results.
It is clear that the NDP has choices to make. Generally, sending more NDPers to the house means sending less Liberals, because that is where the electorate on the centre-left intersects. The story is a bit different in BC, where you have three-way horse races, and in Quebec, where the NDP and Conservatives barely register, but in Ontario, the 900lb gorilla in the Canadian electorate, NDP fortunes will live or die depending on how many 905ers get spooked back to the Grits.
Knowing this in his heart, can Layton make common cause with the Tories and convince people to not fear a non-Liberal Government in the second half of the campaign in order to steal some Liberal seats? I'm not sure. I imagine he recoils in disgust at having to do so. But both the NDP and the Tories have stated their desire to see the Liberals punished --what better way to do so than being bounced from Government? --and it is useful to look at areas of possible collaboration in a house with a decimated grit caucus, a strong NDP, and a fragile Conservative minority looking to get things done.
Saturday, December 31, 2005
Horserace
The winds of change are beginning to blow as the campaign rolls into 2006. The two main parties are now in a statistical dead heat in the polls. There is an undeniable sense of a momentum shift in the air, and the pungent stench of fear is beginning to emanate from the Liberals.
Throughout the election campaign I have been relying on three fantastic online sources to feed my hunger for info, and each of them have been buzzing over the past few days, as a new picture of the 2006 election begins to coalesce.
Bourque, who has been watching the Income Trust Scandal closely, and following its impact in the polls, reports seismic shifts in the upper echelons of the Liberal Party, as pretenders to Martin's throne await the results of the plebiscite that will determine PM's future. A failure to gain a majority may mean Martin's days as Liberal Party leader are numbered. A loss of power will seal his fate.
Kinsella, no friend of the Martin regime, reports with glee on the new Conservative spot--one he believes will effectively hamstring the Liberal's plan to "go negative"-- and proclaims that the bottom has fallen out of their campaign. He has been predicting with a certainty bordering on cockiness that this election will be a repudiation of Paul Martin's Ministry.
Not so fast... a cornered dog still has teeth, and the Liberals have been ramping up their efforts to uncover skeletons in Conservative closets --a tactic that has served them well in previous elections. Macleans Back-page guy Wells, who aired some ugly stuff about Peter Goldring's campaign manager this week, remarks upon the way the Conservatives moved quickly and decisively to neutralize the story before it got legs by summarily sacking Gord Stamp. One cannot fail to note the contrast between this deft stickhandling and the continuing inability of Martin to take any decisive action on, well, anything.
Happy New Year, people --the first month of ought-six promises to be very interesting.
The winds of change are beginning to blow as the campaign rolls into 2006. The two main parties are now in a statistical dead heat in the polls. There is an undeniable sense of a momentum shift in the air, and the pungent stench of fear is beginning to emanate from the Liberals.
Throughout the election campaign I have been relying on three fantastic online sources to feed my hunger for info, and each of them have been buzzing over the past few days, as a new picture of the 2006 election begins to coalesce.
Bourque, who has been watching the Income Trust Scandal closely, and following its impact in the polls, reports seismic shifts in the upper echelons of the Liberal Party, as pretenders to Martin's throne await the results of the plebiscite that will determine PM's future. A failure to gain a majority may mean Martin's days as Liberal Party leader are numbered. A loss of power will seal his fate.
Kinsella, no friend of the Martin regime, reports with glee on the new Conservative spot--one he believes will effectively hamstring the Liberal's plan to "go negative"-- and proclaims that the bottom has fallen out of their campaign. He has been predicting with a certainty bordering on cockiness that this election will be a repudiation of Paul Martin's Ministry.
Not so fast... a cornered dog still has teeth, and the Liberals have been ramping up their efforts to uncover skeletons in Conservative closets --a tactic that has served them well in previous elections. Macleans Back-page guy Wells, who aired some ugly stuff about Peter Goldring's campaign manager this week, remarks upon the way the Conservatives moved quickly and decisively to neutralize the story before it got legs by summarily sacking Gord Stamp. One cannot fail to note the contrast between this deft stickhandling and the continuing inability of Martin to take any decisive action on, well, anything.
Happy New Year, people --the first month of ought-six promises to be very interesting.
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
LINK-O-RAMA
More shenanigans!
God bless the troops and their families
Dangerous mix of religion and politics?
Who knew that Brian Trottier was Aboriginal?... and who knew that such racist pigs still existed?
20/12/2005
All right, let's go to toronto now and ndp leader jack layton is at a subway
station in the city:
be warned: Voting for paul martin's liberals because of issues like the war in
Iraq or Kyoto or equal marriage is risky because you never know which paul
martin you are going to get. After all, when Paul martin does not know what he
believes, how can you? The fact is that mr. Martin is wrapping himself in the
courage of his predecessor when he dodged and waffled on every question. If you
think jean chretien made the right call on Iraq vote ndp because we supported
him. Not Paul martin who undermined him as prime minister and liberal leader.
Voting liberal in toronto does not stop a conservative, it elects a liberal and rewards a party that's taken toronto's votes and then taken it for granted. Taken Toronto's tax dollars and spent them on its friends... Voting for paul martin's liberals because of issues like the war in Iraq or Kyoto or equal marriage is risky because you never know which paul martin you are going to get. After all, when Paul martin does not know what he believes, how can you? The fact is that mr. Martin is wrapping himself in the courage of his predecessor when he dodged and waffled on every question. If you think jean chretien made the right call on Iraq vote ndp because we supported him. Not Paul martin who undermined him as prime minister and liberal leader.
If Layton states, for the record, that he could work with a Harper Government a
few more times, my prediction for last election, may turn out to be eerily
prescient of this election:
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Ellard.James
> Sent: June 28, 2004 12:28 PM
> To:
> Subject: RE: Guess results
>
> My prediction:
>
> Martin will try to form a minority Liberal Government (will lean left for NDP)
>
> Will fall by October
>
> Odds 50-50 that Martin survives leadership review.
>
> Conservatives 114
> Liberals 110
> Bloc Québécois 57
> NDP 26
> Independent 1
>
> You heard it here first!
Oh, the year was 1778, HOW I WISH I WAS IN SHERBROOKE NOW!
A letter of marque come from the king,
To the scummiest vessel I'd ever seen,
CHORUS:
God damn them all!
I was told we'd cruise the seas for American gold
We'd fire no guns-shed no tears
Now I'm a broken man on a Halifax pier
The last of Barrett's Privateers.
Oh, Elcid Barrett cried the town, HOW I WISH I WAS . . .
For twenty brave men all fishermen who
would make for him the Antelope's crew
(chorus)
The Antelope sloop was a sickening sight,
She'd a list to the port and and her sails in rags
And the cook in scuppers with the staggers and the jags
(chorus)
On the King's birthday we put to sea,
We were 91 days to Montego Bay
Pumping like madmen all the way
(chorus)
On the 96th day we sailed again,
When a bloody great Yankee hove in sight
With our cracked four pounders we made to fight
(chorus)
The Yankee lay low down with gold,
She was broad and fat and loose in the stays
But to catch her took the Antelope two whole days
(chorus)
Then at length we stood two cables away,
Our cracked four pounders made an awful din
But with one fat ball the Yank stove us in
(chorus)
The Antelope shook and pitched on her side,
Barrett was smashed like a bowl of eggs
And the Maintruck carried off both me legs
(chorus)
So here I lay in my 23rd year,
It's been 6 years since we sailed away
And I just made Halifax yesterday
Ah, General Tso, you were a formidable opponent, but your chicken is delectable! C. Montgomery Burns
More shenanigans!
God bless the troops and their families
Dangerous mix of religion and politics?
Who knew that Brian Trottier was Aboriginal?... and who knew that such racist pigs still existed?
20/12/2005
All right, let's go to toronto now and ndp leader jack layton is at a subway
station in the city:
be warned: Voting for paul martin's liberals because of issues like the war in
Iraq or Kyoto or equal marriage is risky because you never know which paul
martin you are going to get. After all, when Paul martin does not know what he
believes, how can you? The fact is that mr. Martin is wrapping himself in the
courage of his predecessor when he dodged and waffled on every question. If you
think jean chretien made the right call on Iraq vote ndp because we supported
him. Not Paul martin who undermined him as prime minister and liberal leader.
Voting liberal in toronto does not stop a conservative, it elects a liberal and rewards a party that's taken toronto's votes and then taken it for granted. Taken Toronto's tax dollars and spent them on its friends... Voting for paul martin's liberals because of issues like the war in Iraq or Kyoto or equal marriage is risky because you never know which paul martin you are going to get. After all, when Paul martin does not know what he believes, how can you? The fact is that mr. Martin is wrapping himself in the courage of his predecessor when he dodged and waffled on every question. If you think jean chretien made the right call on Iraq vote ndp because we supported him. Not Paul martin who undermined him as prime minister and liberal leader.
If Layton states, for the record, that he could work with a Harper Government a
few more times, my prediction for last election, may turn out to be eerily
prescient of this election:
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Ellard.James
> Sent: June 28, 2004 12:28 PM
> To:
> Subject: RE: Guess results
>
> My prediction:
>
> Martin will try to form a minority Liberal Government (will lean left for NDP)
>
> Will fall by October
>
> Odds 50-50 that Martin survives leadership review.
>
> Conservatives 114
> Liberals 110
> Bloc Québécois 57
> NDP 26
> Independent 1
>
> You heard it here first!
Oh, the year was 1778, HOW I WISH I WAS IN SHERBROOKE NOW!
A letter of marque come from the king,
To the scummiest vessel I'd ever seen,
CHORUS:
God damn them all!
I was told we'd cruise the seas for American gold
We'd fire no guns-shed no tears
Now I'm a broken man on a Halifax pier
The last of Barrett's Privateers.
Oh, Elcid Barrett cried the town, HOW I WISH I WAS . . .
For twenty brave men all fishermen who
would make for him the Antelope's crew
(chorus)
The Antelope sloop was a sickening sight,
She'd a list to the port and and her sails in rags
And the cook in scuppers with the staggers and the jags
(chorus)
On the King's birthday we put to sea,
We were 91 days to Montego Bay
Pumping like madmen all the way
(chorus)
On the 96th day we sailed again,
When a bloody great Yankee hove in sight
With our cracked four pounders we made to fight
(chorus)
The Yankee lay low down with gold,
She was broad and fat and loose in the stays
But to catch her took the Antelope two whole days
(chorus)
Then at length we stood two cables away,
Our cracked four pounders made an awful din
But with one fat ball the Yank stove us in
(chorus)
The Antelope shook and pitched on her side,
Barrett was smashed like a bowl of eggs
And the Maintruck carried off both me legs
(chorus)
So here I lay in my 23rd year,
It's been 6 years since we sailed away
And I just made Halifax yesterday
Ah, General Tso, you were a formidable opponent, but your chicken is delectable! C. Montgomery Burns
Lazy Sunday
Funniest bit I've seen on SNL for ages
[Samberg] Lazy Sunday, wake up in the late afternoon, call Parnell just to see
how he's doin'.
[Parnell] Hello?
[Samberg] What up, Parns?
[Parnell] Yo Samberg, what's rockin'?
[Samberg] You thinkin' what I'm thinkin'?
[both] NARNIA!
[Samberg] Then it's happenin'.
[Parnell] But first my hunger pangs, I stick it like duct tape.
[Samberg] Let's hit up Magnolia and mack on some cupcakes.
[Parnell] No doubt the bakery's got all the bomb frostings.
[Samberg] I love those cupcakes like McAdams loves Gosling...
[Parnell] Two!
[Samberg] No, six!
[Parnell] No, twelve!
[both] BAKER'S DOZEN!
[Samberg] I told you that I'm crazy for these cupcakes, cousin!
[Parnell] Yo, where's the movie playin'?
[Samberg] Upper West Side, dude.
[Parnell] Well let's hit up Yahoo Maps to find the dopest route.
[Samberg] I prefer MapQuest...
[Parnell] That's a good one, too...
[Samberg] Google Maps is the best...
[Parnell] True dat!
[both] DOUBLE TRUE!
[Samberg] 68th and Broadway,
[Parnell] Step on it, suckah!
[Samberg] Whatchoo wanna do, Chris?
[Parnell] SNACK ATTACK, MOTHER-F*****!
[both] The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Yes, The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
We love The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Pass the The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
[Samberg] Yo, stop at the deli, the theater's overpriced.
[Parnell] You got the backpack?
[Samberg] Gonna pack it up nice!
[Parnell] Don't want security to get suspicious.
[Samberg] Mr. Pibb and Red Vines equals Crazy Delicious!
[Parnell] I reach in my pocket, pull out some dough,
[Samberg] Girl acted like she never seen a ten befo'.
[both] It's all about the Hamiltons, baby!
[Samberg] Throw the snacks in the bag,
[Parnell] And I'm Ghost like Swayze...
[Parnell] Roll up to the theater,
[Samberg] Ticket-buyin', well, we're handlin',
[Parnell] You can call us Aaron Burr
[Samberg] From the way we're droppin' Hamiltons.
[Parnell] We're parked in our seats, movie trivia's the illest.
[Samberg] What Friends alum starred in films with Bruce Willis?
[Parnell] We answer so fast that we're scary.
[Samberg] Everyone stand in awe when we scream
[both] MATTHEW PERRY!
[Samberg] Now, quiet in the theater or it's gonna get tragic!
[Parnell] We're 'bout to get taken to a dreamworld of magic!
[both] It's The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Yes, The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
We love The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Pass the The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Funniest bit I've seen on SNL for ages
[Samberg] Lazy Sunday, wake up in the late afternoon, call Parnell just to see
how he's doin'.
[Parnell] Hello?
[Samberg] What up, Parns?
[Parnell] Yo Samberg, what's rockin'?
[Samberg] You thinkin' what I'm thinkin'?
[both] NARNIA!
[Samberg] Then it's happenin'.
[Parnell] But first my hunger pangs, I stick it like duct tape.
[Samberg] Let's hit up Magnolia and mack on some cupcakes.
[Parnell] No doubt the bakery's got all the bomb frostings.
[Samberg] I love those cupcakes like McAdams loves Gosling...
[Parnell] Two!
[Samberg] No, six!
[Parnell] No, twelve!
[both] BAKER'S DOZEN!
[Samberg] I told you that I'm crazy for these cupcakes, cousin!
[Parnell] Yo, where's the movie playin'?
[Samberg] Upper West Side, dude.
[Parnell] Well let's hit up Yahoo Maps to find the dopest route.
[Samberg] I prefer MapQuest...
[Parnell] That's a good one, too...
[Samberg] Google Maps is the best...
[Parnell] True dat!
[both] DOUBLE TRUE!
[Samberg] 68th and Broadway,
[Parnell] Step on it, suckah!
[Samberg] Whatchoo wanna do, Chris?
[Parnell] SNACK ATTACK, MOTHER-F*****!
[both] The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Yes, The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
We love The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Pass the The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
[Samberg] Yo, stop at the deli, the theater's overpriced.
[Parnell] You got the backpack?
[Samberg] Gonna pack it up nice!
[Parnell] Don't want security to get suspicious.
[Samberg] Mr. Pibb and Red Vines equals Crazy Delicious!
[Parnell] I reach in my pocket, pull out some dough,
[Samberg] Girl acted like she never seen a ten befo'.
[both] It's all about the Hamiltons, baby!
[Samberg] Throw the snacks in the bag,
[Parnell] And I'm Ghost like Swayze...
[Parnell] Roll up to the theater,
[Samberg] Ticket-buyin', well, we're handlin',
[Parnell] You can call us Aaron Burr
[Samberg] From the way we're droppin' Hamiltons.
[Parnell] We're parked in our seats, movie trivia's the illest.
[Samberg] What Friends alum starred in films with Bruce Willis?
[Parnell] We answer so fast that we're scary.
[Samberg] Everyone stand in awe when we scream
[both] MATTHEW PERRY!
[Samberg] Now, quiet in the theater or it's gonna get tragic!
[Parnell] We're 'bout to get taken to a dreamworld of magic!
[both] It's The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Yes, The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
We love The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
Pass the The Chronic--WHAT?--cles of Narnia!
e-mail I got today from a reliable source:
> This guy is a paid consultant who got all but one seat called correctly in the
last election.
> Memorandum
> 20 December 2005
>
>
>
> Subject: Election 2006 Midway Update
>
> As the political leaders take a break for Christmas, I thought that it would
be useful to consider the state of the campaign and provide some insight into
possible outcomes.
>
> To begin, we should look briefly at the current standing in the House of
Commons:
>
> Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Other Total
> Newfoundland/Labrador 5 2 0 0 0 7
> Nova Scotia 6 3 2 0 0 11
> New Brunswick 7 2 1 0 0 10
> PEI 4 0 0 0 0 4
> Quebec 21 0 0 54 0 75
> Ontario 74 23 7 0 2 106
> Manitoba 3 7 3 0 1 14
> Saskatchewan 1 13 0 0 0 14
> Alberta 1 26 0 0 1 28
> British Columbia 8 22 0 0 1 36
> Northern Territories 3 0 0 0 0 3
> Total 133 98 18 54 5 308
>
> Canadian elections are rarely homogenous single issue campaigns. In reality,
Canada will have five distinct regional campaigns (plus the North), each with
its own inter-party dynamic and regional issues. Thus, Election 2006 will be
fought in six distinct battlegrounds: the Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, the West,
British Columbia and the North.
>
>
>
>
> Since the campaign began on November 29th, the Liberals have never been behind
in a National opinion poll. Only Ipsos-Reid has shown the Liberals and
Conservatives tied at 31% each > -> and that was on day one of the campaign.
Subsequent Ipsos-Reid polls (3) all have the Liberals ahead by several points.
Other pollsters have given the lead to the Liberals by as much as 10%. The true
dynamic of the National campaign will not become evident until the final push
post-Christmas when both the party advertising and Leaders> '> rhetoric are
expected to go negative.
>
> Two firms (SES and Strategic Counsel) are doing daily updates to Tracking
polls > -> these are smaller sample sizes than National surveys that are
aggregated over several days to provide a good read of the trend-lines for
voting intentions. Interestingly, the two Tracking polls seem to contradict each
other. SES has consistently given the Liberals a significant lead > -> as wide
as 15% at the end of week one, but narrowed to only 8% in the most recent
samples. The Strategic Counsel, on the other hand, has shown a much tighter
race, with the two parties in a virtually dead heat for the first several weeks.
In its most recent samples, the Liberals have been ahead by roughly 5%. You
should note that the SES numbers are closer to the results from other larger
National polls than are those of the Strategic Counsel. The Tracking polls may
provide the most interesting data as the election unfolds and should be watched
as the campaign shifts to the pro-active phase after Christmas.
>
> So what does the current Regional picture look like? Regional political
strength at dissolution of the House of Commons is shown below, i.e. total seats
in Parliament.
>
> Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Independent
> BC 36 8 22 5 0 1
> West 56 4 46 3 0 2
> Ontario 106 74 23 7 0 2
> Quebec 75 21 0 0 54 0
> Atlantic 32 22 7 3 0 0
> North 3 3 0 0 0 0
> Total 308 133 98 18 54 5
>
> British Columbia: The BC campaign appears to be the tightest race in the
country. In most polls since the Election was called, Liberal, Conservative and
NDP numbers have been virtually tied > -> within the margin of polling error.
The most recent SES Tracking poll, however, shows the Liberals with a slim lead,
and the NDP losing s> upport to the Conservatives. Liberal and NDP strength lies
in the Lower Mainland; and the Conservatives remain strong in the rest of the
province. I would expect that as the race turns negative, the vote will polarize
between the Liberals and the Conservatives and the NDP vote will be reduced. In
a close National race, BC could be the King-maker in 2006.
>
> The West: Alberta and Saskatchewan remain Conservative strong-holds. The only
non-Conservative seats in the two provinces are Anne McLellan in Edmonton and
Ralph Goodale in Regina. (Independent David Kilgour> '> s seat in Edmonton is
expected to return to the Conservative fold.)
>
>
> Both have gone against the stream to win in the past and they could survive
again. Anne McLellan appears to be vulnerable this time. Manitoba, with some
interesting three way local races, could bring a few surprises for all parties.
Manitoba is the only Western province where parties other than the Conservatives
have a reasonable chance of winning or keeping seats.
>
> Ontario: The Liberals started strong and appear to be holding a substantial
lead over the Conservatives. It is expected that Stephen Harper will target key
ridings in South West and Rural Ontario, and selected ridings elsewhere. Recent
polls (SES particularly) have noted an increase in Conservative support in these
areas. There is also some encouragement for them in Toronto itself. So far,
National polls give the edge to the Liberals in Ontario. In the final three
weeks of the campaign, the NDP could be squeezed as in BC if the electorate
becomes polarized around the stark choice between the Conservatives and the
Liberals. In Ontario, so far, the Liberals strongest card appears to be Stephen
Harper. As long as Harper does not > "> break through> "> in Ontario, the last
Liberal bastion will hold.
>
> Quebec: In Quebec, the race is between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals,
with the BQ anticipating additional seats in Montreal> '> s > "> red zone> "> .
Liberal Ministers Pierre Pettigrew, Liza Frulla, Jacques Saada and Jean Lapierre
are all in tight races to retain their seats. Two other races to watch are
Pontiac (where Conservative candidate, Lawrence Cannon, is running a strong race
against Liberal incumbent, David Smith) and Vaudreuil-Solanges (where former
Astronaut Marc Garneau is trying to win the seat back for the Liberals from BQ
incumbent Meilli Faille). The BQ currently hold 54 of the 75 seats in Quebec,
and have a substantial lead (> 20%) in all polls. It is expected that the BQ
will add seats to their total, but how many will depend on the dynamic of the
final three weeks. While recent Tracking polls show slight movement to the
Liberals, the advantage remains with the Bloc.
>
> Atlantic: Given current polls in this region, it is doubtful that there will
be much change from the last Election. Liberal support appears to be growing at
the expense of the Conservatives. However, the results in the Atlantic region
often run contrary to National trends. In 1997, when the Liberals won a thin
Majority government, the Atlantic region voted massively for the Conservative
party, displacing numerous incumbents, including high profile Liberal Ministers
David Dingwall and Doug Young.
>
> The North: The North cannot be counted as a separate region, per se, given
that there are only three seats. That said, the status quo is likely to prevail
with the Liberals retaining all three seats.
>
> Conclusions: The Bloc Quebecois are expected to dominate in Quebec,
effectively removing up to 60 of the 308 seats from the calculations of the
other two National parties > -> all but guaranteeing that the next Parliament
will be another Minority government. As of today, this is still a Liberal
Minority Parliament. With the exception of the Strategic Counsel Tracking poll,
the consensus among pollsters (Ipsos-Reid, SES, Leger, Ekos, Decima) is that the
Liberals have a growing lead of 6 - 8% and currently sit at 36 - 38%. Most
troubling for the Conservatives is that they have been unable to post consistent
numbers above 30% nationally > -> despite the multitude of issues confronting
the Liberal Party (Gomery, HRDC, Gun Registry, and more). Pollara has just
released a poll showing the Conservatives at 34% nationally. The Liberals are at
37% in the same poll.
>
>
>
>
> It appears that the first series of Debates changed the voting intentions of
very few Canadians. There will be a second series of Debates on January 9 -10,
and it is expected that the attacks will become more personal and negative. The
serious phase of the campaign begins on January 3rd.
>
> I will offer no firm predictions yet. However, you may want to consider that
in 1997, when the Liberals received 39% of the popular vote, they were rewarded
with 155 of the 301 seats > -> a Majority. In 2000, with 41% of the vote, they
received 172 of the 301 available > -> a bigger Majority. In the last Election
(June 28th, 2004), the Conservatives were ahead in most polls going into the
final three weeks. However, negative ads and sharp attacks by the Liberals
raised sufficient doubt in the public> '> s mind about the agenda of Stephen
Harper. In the final count, with just over 36% of the vote, the Liberals managed
to win a Minority government of 135 seats. So, while the gap of one or two
percent in the polls may seem insignificant to those tracking national polling
results, in reality it could well be the determinant of Minority or Majority
status.
>
> Based on the current state of the campaign, I would offer the following as the
most likely outcomes of the January 23rd election.
>
> Liberal Minority: As of today, this appears to be the most likely outcome. In
such an eventuality, it would be business as usual, although there is likely to
be a major reshuffling of Ministers and senior officials. Also, depending on the
margin of victory, it could well spell the beginning of the end for Paul Martin
as Liberal leader. No doubt, the knives will be out if the Liberals come close
to losing the government. However, Martin> '> s team has a firm grip on Liberal
Party infrastructure and it may be difficult to remove him as Leader if he
chooses to fight for his job. Conservative Leader Harper, on the other hand,
will likely be replaced shortly after any Liberal victory > -> even a Minority.
Harper> '> s demise may, in turn, increase pressure on the Liberals to rethink
Martin> '> s leadership of the Party. He will be 69.
>
> Conservative Minority: A major gaffe by the Liberals or a major upsurge in
Conservative support in key markets in Ontario and BC will be required to
engineer a Conservative victory. However, given the volatility of the electorate
and the fact that many Canadians have not yet tuned into the Election, anything
is possible. Should Stephen Harper win, there would be wholesale change in the
government agenda and massive change in the federal bureaucracy, particularly at
the Deputy Minister and PCO level. Liberal leader Martin will come under intense
pressure to resign.
>
> Liberal Majority: While it may look like a long-shot today, the electorate
appears to be quite volatile. As pointed out, even a modest change in the
popular vote can have dramatic results in terms of seats in the House of
Commons. At this point, the Liberals appear to be the only party with a chance
of forming a Majority government. Liberal support has edged at or near 40%
several times during this campaign.
>
> The pace of the campaign will enliven on January 3rd. Canadians will be
deluged with advertising and heightened rhetoric. The results on Election Day
will reflect the regional dynamic of the Canadian federation. However, with the
separatist Bloc Quebecois holding the > "> balance of power> "> in any Minority
Parliament, the dynamic for continued instability is considerable. Canada could
well be into another election within 18 months.
> This guy is a paid consultant who got all but one seat called correctly in the
last election.
> Memorandum
> 20 December 2005
>
>
>
> Subject: Election 2006 Midway Update
>
> As the political leaders take a break for Christmas, I thought that it would
be useful to consider the state of the campaign and provide some insight into
possible outcomes.
>
> To begin, we should look briefly at the current standing in the House of
Commons:
>
> Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Other Total
> Newfoundland/Labrador 5 2 0 0 0 7
> Nova Scotia 6 3 2 0 0 11
> New Brunswick 7 2 1 0 0 10
> PEI 4 0 0 0 0 4
> Quebec 21 0 0 54 0 75
> Ontario 74 23 7 0 2 106
> Manitoba 3 7 3 0 1 14
> Saskatchewan 1 13 0 0 0 14
> Alberta 1 26 0 0 1 28
> British Columbia 8 22 0 0 1 36
> Northern Territories 3 0 0 0 0 3
> Total 133 98 18 54 5 308
>
> Canadian elections are rarely homogenous single issue campaigns. In reality,
Canada will have five distinct regional campaigns (plus the North), each with
its own inter-party dynamic and regional issues. Thus, Election 2006 will be
fought in six distinct battlegrounds: the Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, the West,
British Columbia and the North.
>
>
>
>
> Since the campaign began on November 29th, the Liberals have never been behind
in a National opinion poll. Only Ipsos-Reid has shown the Liberals and
Conservatives tied at 31% each > -> and that was on day one of the campaign.
Subsequent Ipsos-Reid polls (3) all have the Liberals ahead by several points.
Other pollsters have given the lead to the Liberals by as much as 10%. The true
dynamic of the National campaign will not become evident until the final push
post-Christmas when both the party advertising and Leaders> '> rhetoric are
expected to go negative.
>
> Two firms (SES and Strategic Counsel) are doing daily updates to Tracking
polls > -> these are smaller sample sizes than National surveys that are
aggregated over several days to provide a good read of the trend-lines for
voting intentions. Interestingly, the two Tracking polls seem to contradict each
other. SES has consistently given the Liberals a significant lead > -> as wide
as 15% at the end of week one, but narrowed to only 8% in the most recent
samples. The Strategic Counsel, on the other hand, has shown a much tighter
race, with the two parties in a virtually dead heat for the first several weeks.
In its most recent samples, the Liberals have been ahead by roughly 5%. You
should note that the SES numbers are closer to the results from other larger
National polls than are those of the Strategic Counsel. The Tracking polls may
provide the most interesting data as the election unfolds and should be watched
as the campaign shifts to the pro-active phase after Christmas.
>
> So what does the current Regional picture look like? Regional political
strength at dissolution of the House of Commons is shown below, i.e. total seats
in Parliament.
>
> Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Independent
> BC 36 8 22 5 0 1
> West 56 4 46 3 0 2
> Ontario 106 74 23 7 0 2
> Quebec 75 21 0 0 54 0
> Atlantic 32 22 7 3 0 0
> North 3 3 0 0 0 0
> Total 308 133 98 18 54 5
>
> British Columbia: The BC campaign appears to be the tightest race in the
country. In most polls since the Election was called, Liberal, Conservative and
NDP numbers have been virtually tied > -> within the margin of polling error.
The most recent SES Tracking poll, however, shows the Liberals with a slim lead,
and the NDP losing s> upport to the Conservatives. Liberal and NDP strength lies
in the Lower Mainland; and the Conservatives remain strong in the rest of the
province. I would expect that as the race turns negative, the vote will polarize
between the Liberals and the Conservatives and the NDP vote will be reduced. In
a close National race, BC could be the King-maker in 2006.
>
> The West: Alberta and Saskatchewan remain Conservative strong-holds. The only
non-Conservative seats in the two provinces are Anne McLellan in Edmonton and
Ralph Goodale in Regina. (Independent David Kilgour> '> s seat in Edmonton is
expected to return to the Conservative fold.)
>
>
> Both have gone against the stream to win in the past and they could survive
again. Anne McLellan appears to be vulnerable this time. Manitoba, with some
interesting three way local races, could bring a few surprises for all parties.
Manitoba is the only Western province where parties other than the Conservatives
have a reasonable chance of winning or keeping seats.
>
> Ontario: The Liberals started strong and appear to be holding a substantial
lead over the Conservatives. It is expected that Stephen Harper will target key
ridings in South West and Rural Ontario, and selected ridings elsewhere. Recent
polls (SES particularly) have noted an increase in Conservative support in these
areas. There is also some encouragement for them in Toronto itself. So far,
National polls give the edge to the Liberals in Ontario. In the final three
weeks of the campaign, the NDP could be squeezed as in BC if the electorate
becomes polarized around the stark choice between the Conservatives and the
Liberals. In Ontario, so far, the Liberals strongest card appears to be Stephen
Harper. As long as Harper does not > "> break through> "> in Ontario, the last
Liberal bastion will hold.
>
> Quebec: In Quebec, the race is between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals,
with the BQ anticipating additional seats in Montreal> '> s > "> red zone> "> .
Liberal Ministers Pierre Pettigrew, Liza Frulla, Jacques Saada and Jean Lapierre
are all in tight races to retain their seats. Two other races to watch are
Pontiac (where Conservative candidate, Lawrence Cannon, is running a strong race
against Liberal incumbent, David Smith) and Vaudreuil-Solanges (where former
Astronaut Marc Garneau is trying to win the seat back for the Liberals from BQ
incumbent Meilli Faille). The BQ currently hold 54 of the 75 seats in Quebec,
and have a substantial lead (> 20%) in all polls. It is expected that the BQ
will add seats to their total, but how many will depend on the dynamic of the
final three weeks. While recent Tracking polls show slight movement to the
Liberals, the advantage remains with the Bloc.
>
> Atlantic: Given current polls in this region, it is doubtful that there will
be much change from the last Election. Liberal support appears to be growing at
the expense of the Conservatives. However, the results in the Atlantic region
often run contrary to National trends. In 1997, when the Liberals won a thin
Majority government, the Atlantic region voted massively for the Conservative
party, displacing numerous incumbents, including high profile Liberal Ministers
David Dingwall and Doug Young.
>
> The North: The North cannot be counted as a separate region, per se, given
that there are only three seats. That said, the status quo is likely to prevail
with the Liberals retaining all three seats.
>
> Conclusions: The Bloc Quebecois are expected to dominate in Quebec,
effectively removing up to 60 of the 308 seats from the calculations of the
other two National parties > -> all but guaranteeing that the next Parliament
will be another Minority government. As of today, this is still a Liberal
Minority Parliament. With the exception of the Strategic Counsel Tracking poll,
the consensus among pollsters (Ipsos-Reid, SES, Leger, Ekos, Decima) is that the
Liberals have a growing lead of 6 - 8% and currently sit at 36 - 38%. Most
troubling for the Conservatives is that they have been unable to post consistent
numbers above 30% nationally > -> despite the multitude of issues confronting
the Liberal Party (Gomery, HRDC, Gun Registry, and more). Pollara has just
released a poll showing the Conservatives at 34% nationally. The Liberals are at
37% in the same poll.
>
>
>
>
> It appears that the first series of Debates changed the voting intentions of
very few Canadians. There will be a second series of Debates on January 9 -10,
and it is expected that the attacks will become more personal and negative. The
serious phase of the campaign begins on January 3rd.
>
> I will offer no firm predictions yet. However, you may want to consider that
in 1997, when the Liberals received 39% of the popular vote, they were rewarded
with 155 of the 301 seats > -> a Majority. In 2000, with 41% of the vote, they
received 172 of the 301 available > -> a bigger Majority. In the last Election
(June 28th, 2004), the Conservatives were ahead in most polls going into the
final three weeks. However, negative ads and sharp attacks by the Liberals
raised sufficient doubt in the public> '> s mind about the agenda of Stephen
Harper. In the final count, with just over 36% of the vote, the Liberals managed
to win a Minority government of 135 seats. So, while the gap of one or two
percent in the polls may seem insignificant to those tracking national polling
results, in reality it could well be the determinant of Minority or Majority
status.
>
> Based on the current state of the campaign, I would offer the following as the
most likely outcomes of the January 23rd election.
>
> Liberal Minority: As of today, this appears to be the most likely outcome. In
such an eventuality, it would be business as usual, although there is likely to
be a major reshuffling of Ministers and senior officials. Also, depending on the
margin of victory, it could well spell the beginning of the end for Paul Martin
as Liberal leader. No doubt, the knives will be out if the Liberals come close
to losing the government. However, Martin> '> s team has a firm grip on Liberal
Party infrastructure and it may be difficult to remove him as Leader if he
chooses to fight for his job. Conservative Leader Harper, on the other hand,
will likely be replaced shortly after any Liberal victory > -> even a Minority.
Harper> '> s demise may, in turn, increase pressure on the Liberals to rethink
Martin> '> s leadership of the Party. He will be 69.
>
> Conservative Minority: A major gaffe by the Liberals or a major upsurge in
Conservative support in key markets in Ontario and BC will be required to
engineer a Conservative victory. However, given the volatility of the electorate
and the fact that many Canadians have not yet tuned into the Election, anything
is possible. Should Stephen Harper win, there would be wholesale change in the
government agenda and massive change in the federal bureaucracy, particularly at
the Deputy Minister and PCO level. Liberal leader Martin will come under intense
pressure to resign.
>
> Liberal Majority: While it may look like a long-shot today, the electorate
appears to be quite volatile. As pointed out, even a modest change in the
popular vote can have dramatic results in terms of seats in the House of
Commons. At this point, the Liberals appear to be the only party with a chance
of forming a Majority government. Liberal support has edged at or near 40%
several times during this campaign.
>
> The pace of the campaign will enliven on January 3rd. Canadians will be
deluged with advertising and heightened rhetoric. The results on Election Day
will reflect the regional dynamic of the Canadian federation. However, with the
separatist Bloc Quebecois holding the > "> balance of power> "> in any Minority
Parliament, the dynamic for continued instability is considerable. Canada could
well be into another election within 18 months.
Saturday, December 17, 2005
Some improvement: From mediocre to marginal
Lets not kid ourselves. Choosing between these four is a bit like deciding which skin disease you find least objectionable. Still, last night's debate was an improvement over Thursday's snoozefest.
Paul Martin did his usual upbeat peppy routine, which I think actually appeals to some people. Stephen Harper continued to work on his smile, which no longer seems so much like a grimace. Layton did his used-car salesman schtick, reverting to the persona we all find so grating. Duceppe, as usual, was eloquent, even in his second language --what a pity his vision is so at odds with most Canadians'.
Policy? Short on details, the lot of them. The gloves really came off when the subject turned to the US, and Martin came out swinging. He's starting to ease into this tough guy persona he has adopted, and seems increasingly comfortable wrapping himself in the Canadian flag. That's what he did when he launched a blistering attack on Duceppe and his "plans" for another sovereignty referendum.
He also attacked Harper on same-sex, which is definitely the achilles' heel in what has so far been a pretty solid Conservative Campaign. Martin seems to be solidifying his campaign around three themes that are widely seen as being his strengths, in spite of his very pronounced waffling on every one of them in the past:
He will defend the Charter (as opposed to Stephen Harper, who won't apparently, because he has a hidden agenda )
He will defend National Unity in this "referendum election" (presumably with the help of such staunch Federalists as Jean Lapierre)
He will stand up to the US and "call 'em like he sees 'em" (notwithstanding his Government's apparent impotence on BSE and soft wood)
Each of these wedge issues will likely pay dividends for Martin at the ballot box. At least two of the three could have very troubling implications for Canada once the dust settles and Martin is called to account by both Quebecers and our friends to the south.
Pretty short-sighted way to get back into power, if you ask me. But this is PM we are talking about, and we know that, in essence, it is power for power's sake that drives the man.
Lets not kid ourselves. Choosing between these four is a bit like deciding which skin disease you find least objectionable. Still, last night's debate was an improvement over Thursday's snoozefest.
Paul Martin did his usual upbeat peppy routine, which I think actually appeals to some people. Stephen Harper continued to work on his smile, which no longer seems so much like a grimace. Layton did his used-car salesman schtick, reverting to the persona we all find so grating. Duceppe, as usual, was eloquent, even in his second language --what a pity his vision is so at odds with most Canadians'.
Policy? Short on details, the lot of them. The gloves really came off when the subject turned to the US, and Martin came out swinging. He's starting to ease into this tough guy persona he has adopted, and seems increasingly comfortable wrapping himself in the Canadian flag. That's what he did when he launched a blistering attack on Duceppe and his "plans" for another sovereignty referendum.
He also attacked Harper on same-sex, which is definitely the achilles' heel in what has so far been a pretty solid Conservative Campaign. Martin seems to be solidifying his campaign around three themes that are widely seen as being his strengths, in spite of his very pronounced waffling on every one of them in the past:
He will defend the Charter (as opposed to Stephen Harper, who won't apparently, because he has a hidden agenda )
He will defend National Unity in this "referendum election" (presumably with the help of such staunch Federalists as Jean Lapierre)
He will stand up to the US and "call 'em like he sees 'em" (notwithstanding his Government's apparent impotence on BSE and soft wood)
Each of these wedge issues will likely pay dividends for Martin at the ballot box. At least two of the three could have very troubling implications for Canada once the dust settles and Martin is called to account by both Quebecers and our friends to the south.
Pretty short-sighted way to get back into power, if you ask me. But this is PM we are talking about, and we know that, in essence, it is power for power's sake that drives the man.
Friday, December 16, 2005
The tao of Moe
Man, you go through life, you try to be nice to people, you struggle to resist the urge to punch 'em in the face, and for what? For some pimply little puke to treat you like dirt unless you're on a team. Well, I'm better than dirt -- well, most kinds of dirt. I mean, not that fancy store-bought dirt. That stuff's loaded with nutrients. I -- I can't compete with that stuff.
Moe Syzlak
Man, you go through life, you try to be nice to people, you struggle to resist the urge to punch 'em in the face, and for what? For some pimply little puke to treat you like dirt unless you're on a team. Well, I'm better than dirt -- well, most kinds of dirt. I mean, not that fancy store-bought dirt. That stuff's loaded with nutrients. I -- I can't compete with that stuff.
Moe Syzlak
YAWN
In a well-intentioned attempt to bring a little civility to the debates after the 2004 debacle, the parties and networks ended up putting us to sleep with this first French debate under the new format.
Still, there were a couple of worthwhile tidbits in there... Martin's little hysterical fit about the Bloc gumming up the works in Ottawa; Harper pinning the PM with BMD; Layton flogging democratic reform and addressing Martin more than once.
The results? I suppose Duceppe won, but this debate won't change any minds. Layton set himself up as the most compassionate of the four --and well he should-- but did no more than perform adequately in his second language. Harper got off to a rough start, looking into the wrong camera for his opening statement, and struggling in French on several occasions --but it won't probably won't matter since the NDP and the Tories are not even on the radar in Quebec. This debate was Martin's to lose to Duceppe, but although Duceppe was by far the strongest presence on that set, Martin held his own. No knockout punch in this first round.
In a well-intentioned attempt to bring a little civility to the debates after the 2004 debacle, the parties and networks ended up putting us to sleep with this first French debate under the new format.
Still, there were a couple of worthwhile tidbits in there... Martin's little hysterical fit about the Bloc gumming up the works in Ottawa; Harper pinning the PM with BMD; Layton flogging democratic reform and addressing Martin more than once.
The results? I suppose Duceppe won, but this debate won't change any minds. Layton set himself up as the most compassionate of the four --and well he should-- but did no more than perform adequately in his second language. Harper got off to a rough start, looking into the wrong camera for his opening statement, and struggling in French on several occasions --but it won't probably won't matter since the NDP and the Tories are not even on the radar in Quebec. This debate was Martin's to lose to Duceppe, but although Duceppe was by far the strongest presence on that set, Martin held his own. No knockout punch in this first round.
Thursday, December 15, 2005
This just in: PM still a douchebag
As THIS old entry shows, I have longstanding antipathy towards our current Prime Minister. Although I honestly believe that Martin is a decent guy, I'm convinced that he is lacking in certain essential leadership qualities that allow him to truly succeed in the job he has wanted for so long. I also believe that
people he has surrounded himself with, a gang known as "The Board", are a real liability to him.
I'm starting to think that voters are catching on to this. Maybe the "Beer and Popcorn" fiasco has opened some eyes....
Many pundits are saying that in the end, we will end up with another Liberal Minority, just because the minute the Conservatives take the lead, "frightened" NDP voters will bolt to the Liberals. Well, if I could reach even one of those voters I would say:
Go ahead, Fear Harper. That's your god-given right as democratic socialists... but fear the Liberals more.... Martin has been speaking your language of late, but do Martin's promises really mean anything? Recall that this is the millionaire who supported the Iraq War and BMD, the guy you were all afraid was going to take the country to the right... Then, just when Jack Layton began holding his feet to the fire in the last parliament and he suddenly reversed course and became a born-again lefty who now chums around with Buzz Hargrove. Do you really think this conversion is genuine?
A Martin majority is still possible if les Rouges can stem the Bloc onslaught in Quebec, make gains in BC (already likely) and make enough Ontario ridings defect from the Tories and NDP. Several Liberal politicians have openly stated their goal of winning a majority.
On the other hand, a Conservative majority is a fantasy. Big bad scary Stephen, if he gets into 24 Sussex at all, will scrape in with a skin-of-his-teeth minority government. Therefore, if the Tories get in, the NDP will continue to call the tune - and the Tories will either dance, flirt with the separatists, or fall. That won't happen if Martin gets his majority, believe you me. watch for the shipping magnate's true colours to re-emerge if that happens... Corporate tax cuts, welcome back! Pull up a chair and sit a spell.
If you are an NDPer, vote for YOUR candidate. Voting against someone is a loser's strategy, because you are effectively penalizing your candidate to block another.
You only get to really exert some influence in a minority parliament. A Liberal majority is a remote possibility. A Conservative majority is not.
As THIS old entry shows, I have longstanding antipathy towards our current Prime Minister. Although I honestly believe that Martin is a decent guy, I'm convinced that he is lacking in certain essential leadership qualities that allow him to truly succeed in the job he has wanted for so long. I also believe that
people he has surrounded himself with, a gang known as "The Board", are a real liability to him.
I'm starting to think that voters are catching on to this. Maybe the "Beer and Popcorn" fiasco has opened some eyes....
Many pundits are saying that in the end, we will end up with another Liberal Minority, just because the minute the Conservatives take the lead, "frightened" NDP voters will bolt to the Liberals. Well, if I could reach even one of those voters I would say:
Go ahead, Fear Harper. That's your god-given right as democratic socialists... but fear the Liberals more.... Martin has been speaking your language of late, but do Martin's promises really mean anything? Recall that this is the millionaire who supported the Iraq War and BMD, the guy you were all afraid was going to take the country to the right... Then, just when Jack Layton began holding his feet to the fire in the last parliament and he suddenly reversed course and became a born-again lefty who now chums around with Buzz Hargrove. Do you really think this conversion is genuine?
A Martin majority is still possible if les Rouges can stem the Bloc onslaught in Quebec, make gains in BC (already likely) and make enough Ontario ridings defect from the Tories and NDP. Several Liberal politicians have openly stated their goal of winning a majority.
On the other hand, a Conservative majority is a fantasy. Big bad scary Stephen, if he gets into 24 Sussex at all, will scrape in with a skin-of-his-teeth minority government. Therefore, if the Tories get in, the NDP will continue to call the tune - and the Tories will either dance, flirt with the separatists, or fall. That won't happen if Martin gets his majority, believe you me. watch for the shipping magnate's true colours to re-emerge if that happens... Corporate tax cuts, welcome back! Pull up a chair and sit a spell.
If you are an NDPer, vote for YOUR candidate. Voting against someone is a loser's strategy, because you are effectively penalizing your candidate to block another.
You only get to really exert some influence in a minority parliament. A Liberal majority is a remote possibility. A Conservative majority is not.
Monday, December 12, 2005
A Little Perspective
" I offically hate Bret Ratner now worse than Hitler" This was an AICN posting December 5th, 2005 of reaction to new X-men movie teaser trailer.
While Brian Singer, originally slated to direct, is adored by fans of the superhero genre, largely because of his two successful X-men adaptations, his replacement is considered a talentless hack by many AICN fanboys. Bret Ratner, who directed Red Dragon (which I like) and the Rush Hour flicks (which are mildly amusing)was brought on board when Singer left the third X-men movie because he was offered the job of directing Superman II.
What really made my day is this follow up post, a few minutes later, by Uncooked_Meat (that's some handle, Poindexter):
08:17:21 PM CST And thus, fellow talkbackers, we have seen the day when AICN
hyperbole reached truly epic proportions. A level which has not been seen
before, and will not see again. Let us sit and comtemplate it.
" I offically hate Bret Ratner now worse than Hitler" This was an AICN posting December 5th, 2005 of reaction to new X-men movie teaser trailer.
While Brian Singer, originally slated to direct, is adored by fans of the superhero genre, largely because of his two successful X-men adaptations, his replacement is considered a talentless hack by many AICN fanboys. Bret Ratner, who directed Red Dragon (which I like) and the Rush Hour flicks (which are mildly amusing)was brought on board when Singer left the third X-men movie because he was offered the job of directing Superman II.
What really made my day is this follow up post, a few minutes later, by Uncooked_Meat (that's some handle, Poindexter):
08:17:21 PM CST And thus, fellow talkbackers, we have seen the day when AICN
hyperbole reached truly epic proportions. A level which has not been seen
before, and will not see again. Let us sit and comtemplate it.
Canadian Unity Update
Back in the day, I wrote an angry rant about Edith Gebndron, real piece of work who somehow managed to ignore the absurd contradictions of her life and reconcile her high-paying Federal Public Service job at Canadian Heritage, a department dedicated to promoting a cohesive country, with her sovereigntist political ideology and activism in a group pursuing the breakup of Canada.
I am pleased to report that subsequently, Ms. Gendron's untenable career paradox ended when she was unceremoniously fired ass-over-tea-kettle out the door by Patrimoine Canadien. How did I discover this? I read this article, which tells us that Edith's husband, Richard Nadeau, is running for the Bloc in an Outaouais riding.
A belated congratulations to Edith on her firing (and her inevitable enshrinement in the pantheon of middle class martyrs of the sovereigniste cause) and best of luck to her as she embarks on the next stage of her life as the wife of a Bloc MP, a duty which will hopefully be free of the ethical dilemmas she seems so singularly ill-equipped to handle.
Back in the day, I wrote an angry rant about Edith Gebndron, real piece of work who somehow managed to ignore the absurd contradictions of her life and reconcile her high-paying Federal Public Service job at Canadian Heritage, a department dedicated to promoting a cohesive country, with her sovereigntist political ideology and activism in a group pursuing the breakup of Canada.
I am pleased to report that subsequently, Ms. Gendron's untenable career paradox ended when she was unceremoniously fired ass-over-tea-kettle out the door by Patrimoine Canadien. How did I discover this? I read this article, which tells us that Edith's husband, Richard Nadeau, is running for the Bloc in an Outaouais riding.
A belated congratulations to Edith on her firing (and her inevitable enshrinement in the pantheon of middle class martyrs of the sovereigniste cause) and best of luck to her as she embarks on the next stage of her life as the wife of a Bloc MP, a duty which will hopefully be free of the ethical dilemmas she seems so singularly ill-equipped to handle.
Monday, December 05, 2005
Election Insanity
Ya gotta love the campaign, folks. I mean, there is some genuinely hilarious stuff going on right now, as Politicians twist themselves into pretzels attempting to explain to us why "the other guys" will be soooo bad for Canada.
Belinda Stronach just blasted Stephen Harper for being willing to putting the country at risk for "Selfish political gain". Ms. Stronach, who can barely put two words together in French, unless it is to order the Terrine de confit de canard aux noix at Cafe Henry Burger, has seen fit to work La Belle Province into her speeches, claiming that bringing down the Liberal minority was "an ill-conceived assault" by Harper on federalism in Quebec.
Meanwhile, sources tell me that, in a vain attempt to appear more virile, our pension-eligible PM has been secretly studying the ancient secret techniques of Rum-Fu and will unleash his new skills with devastating effect on the leaders of the rival parties at the first televised debate.
Watch for that, people... it's gonna be awesome!
Ya gotta love the campaign, folks. I mean, there is some genuinely hilarious stuff going on right now, as Politicians twist themselves into pretzels attempting to explain to us why "the other guys" will be soooo bad for Canada.
Belinda Stronach just blasted Stephen Harper for being willing to putting the country at risk for "Selfish political gain". Ms. Stronach, who can barely put two words together in French, unless it is to order the Terrine de confit de canard aux noix at Cafe Henry Burger, has seen fit to work La Belle Province into her speeches, claiming that bringing down the Liberal minority was "an ill-conceived assault" by Harper on federalism in Quebec.
Meanwhile, sources tell me that, in a vain attempt to appear more virile, our pension-eligible PM has been secretly studying the ancient secret techniques of Rum-Fu and will unleash his new skills with devastating effect on the leaders of the rival parties at the first televised debate.
Watch for that, people... it's gonna be awesome!
Sunday, December 04, 2005
Rick Mercer works blue
And it's funny! Check out his blog, which features letters from the desks of Paul Martin and Stephen Harper as well as a Photo Challenge. My personal fave is "Drop the Writ Like it's Hot" With the Snoop D-O-double-G in the background. Priceless.
And it's funny! Check out his blog, which features letters from the desks of Paul Martin and Stephen Harper as well as a Photo Challenge. My personal fave is "Drop the Writ Like it's Hot" With the Snoop D-O-double-G in the background. Priceless.
Friday, December 02, 2005
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