Swompdonkey

What do I think of the election campaign?

Well, being the "right-wing reactionary" (my dad's term) that I am, I am encouraged.

That's not to say that politics in Canada is taking a hard-right turn, regardless of what the yank-bashers and guardians of Canadian culture would have you believe. The centre has proved to be a surprisingly spacious piece of political real estate, notwithsanding the efforts of the Liberal Party-- the party of "da Canadian Values" -- to extend their lease there.

I am encouraged because in the wake of the Alliance-Conservative shotgun marriage something surprising happened. Rather than swallowing the rump PC holus-bolus as the Tory old guard of that moribund party (Clark, Stevens, et al)predicted, the giddy newlyweds found that they could accomodate each other. This "hostile takeover" ended up pulling the Western rednecks and social conservatives kicking and screaming over into moderate right-of centre territory, miles away from the goose-steppers and Jesus freaks with whom they had previously been lumped by Canada's liberal media.

I discovered, to my astonishment, that there is more than one "establishment" in Canada. There is, of course, the "Liberal Establishment"... you know, the folks who created the "Trudeaupian" state, as Steyn calls the Canadian polity that has evolved since the late sixties. They have had the run of the joint in Federal politics for most of the last forty years (except for that eight-year Mulroney interregnum of constitutional and free trade squabbles that still makes most good Canadians shudder). With their Charter, their Multiculturalism, their vigorous anti-Americanism and wtheir well-intentioned degradation of Canada's proud military, the Libs put the Canadian identity in a powerful submission hold and squeezed until the monarchists and detaxers tapped out (I was just watching Wrestling, cut me some slack).

Thing is though, there is another establishment kicking around; "The Man" that the hippies warned us about: The Bay Street Boys, the sinister right-wing conspiracy, the old-Canada Cabal: during the nineties, a bunch of middle-aged cranky white guys kept electing fellows like Mike Harris and Ralph Klein at the Provincial level. In spite of having extirpated the Mulroneyites au federal, the Liberals never could deliver the coup de grace to the conservative breed once and for all. Sure, some interesting populist permutations evolved at the Federal level during the nineties, folks who seemed to be more suited to some carny side-show in Saskatchewan than the sombre halls of power of Ottawa, but in the provinces, there remained a right wing establishment, and darn it all if those guys didn't hang in there, and even flourish.

Maybe it was the return of smilin' Brian for the unveiling of his official portrait that signalled the Conservative resurgence. Maybe it was the courtship of Peter McKay and Stephen Harper. Heck, maybe it was the candidacy of BELINDA!... whatever it was, sometime in the last few months, Canadians discovered that a "conservative" was not some odd breed of American that had stolen the 2000 elections from Al.Gore, version 2.0, but honest-to-goodness flesh and blood humans who lived up here among us! Sure, they liked their hunting rifles and hated the Senate and high taxes, but some of them had some pretty interesting ideas about things like eliminating government waste and improving accountability. Most interesting of all, they consort with people we may dimly remember from the eighties, those Crosbies and MacDougalls that used to hang out with Ben Mulroney's dad.

Canadians have finally discovered that the Liberals do not have a monopoly on the Canadian identity. They have a vision of it (or do they? Coyne might dispute that) The Conservatives have a different vision. So do the NDP, for that matter, as bizarre and repugnant as it may seem. Nothing wrong with different visions. In fact, selecting between competing visions for the country isn't a half-bad way of deciding how to govern the country and who should do it. The Liberals seem alarmed that Harper's "Alliance-Conservatives" may have a hidden agenda... if by that they mean a "non-Liberal agenda", they have reason to worry. Harper has been admirably frank about his desire to take the country in a different direction. Polls seem to indicate that there is segment of our society that may be willing to give his version of Canada a whirl. The Liberals may be surprised that some of their "natural" constituents are turning their backs on their benefactors, but you can't have it both ways. If you are going to bring immigrants into Canada and encourage them to preserve their "traditions", you can't get snotty when they politely inform you that their traditions don't include Abdul and Mohammed getting married, or having young Bai Wen saunter home from the abortion clinic and finishing her calculus homework while smoking a big fatty.

That is where the Liberals get caught. They staked out a big spot in the centre, they cast a wide net, and now after one scandal too many, they are finding that in spite of their desperate assurances, they can't hold on to everyone. Is it any wonder that they are bleeding supporters left right and centre?

Question is... are the Conservatives close enough to the centre to pick off just enough disaffected Liberal voters to make this thing interesting? My gut tells me they are... but what will that mean on election night? Stay tuned.